The NBA Odds have the Mavs as huge -10 ½ favorites after their big win last night, but are the Celtics undervalued as double digit dogs?
Let our NBA Picks of the Day point you in the right direction.
With Boston having played last night, the custom this season since he has returned is to sit Rajon Rondo. With the C’s best player likely on the sidelines in a suit and tie tonight, the Celtics are going to have to get production from a lot of different people. However while it will be difficult to replace Rondo on both ends of the floor, the C’s are double-digit underdogs here against a team playing on no rest.
They are also double digit underdogs to a team that just had their best win of the season, something that could affect them tonight. One look at the Celtics without Rondo (nothing has been confirmed but it seems almost a definite at this point that he sits) and the Mavs might just overlook them after that first glance. The Celtics are still dangerous enough to cover a +10 ½ point spread even without their star point guard.
The Sharp Pick
The Celtics are 11-6 ATS this season playing on no rest, and even though their youth hasn’t served them well this season, it has served them when they play on consecutive nights. One of the reasons they have been good on no rest is the books undervalue them, and they are doing it once again with this spread.
The Mavs played last night as well, and after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder by more than 20 points, having to travel back home and cover a double digit spread against anyone is tough. Almost all of the starters for Dallas still played 30 minutes last night in the blowout, and at this point in the season, that is significant. I see a let down game for the Mavs tonight, and it’s why I like the C’s even if Rondo sits out.
Since Rondo returned earlier this season, the Celtics have been playing well ATS. On nights where the C’s are playing without Rondo, and he played the night before, the Celtics are still 3-2 ATS.
Tonight’s game should be pretty up in tempo, but I don’t see the Mavs running away with this one, even though they hit the Thunder square in the mouth last night. Dallas is outstanding at home, but not many teams can beat the Thunder by 20 and turn around the next night and do basically the same thing.
I think the sportsbooks are taking advantage of the big win the Mavs had and they are inflating their line from what it should be. I do think the Mavs will win this game somewhat easily, but Boston is still good enough to cover the spread without Rondo. This season, Boston has gone 18-14 ATS on the road, and while this play is far from a lock, on a short card, I do think it’s one of the top five plays of the evening.
My Pick: Celtics +10 ½