Here are a few meaningful trends worth considering if playing the NBA card on Wednesday. Picks include the Cavaliers-Grizzlies, Raptors-76ers, and Clippers-Magic contests.
Trend analysis: LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love are not even traveling to Memphis tonight, getting rest for the second of a back-to-back series. Since returning to Cleveland, the Cavs are 4-16 SU and 1-18-1 ATS when The King sits out. They’re losing to the spread by 8.5 points per game in this spot. Their performance slips even more with Irving out. The point guard has missed five of these games, with the Cavs dropping to the number by 11.5 points. Oddsmakers opened Cleveland 8-point favorites before pulling the offer after word last night of the mass sit-out. An adjusted line of -5.5 in favor of the Grizz is the newest price. Take it. It’s been lucrative to fade the NBA’s reigning champions with the core missing—whatever the price.
Free NBA Pick: Grizzlies -5.5
Trend analysis: Toronto owns a 13-game win streak over the Sixers, covering the spread in the last six straight. Recent form suggests the onslaught will continue. The Raptors are soaring above the betting market, going 14-4 ATS and 13-4-1 over the total in their last 18 games. Be careful in this spot if playing the side, however. All four of the ATS losses occurred in nine games against defenses allowing more than the league average in points (104.3). Moreover, Philly is 9-0 ATS when scoring 100 points or more this season. Toronto has allowed eight of 10 opponents reach the century mark on the road this season.
Free NBA Pick: 76ers +8.5
Trend analysis: The number is off the board as of publication, but a pick on the OVER may be boosted by these season trends. The OVER is 11-1 when the Clippers square off against a team with a losing record this season. The combined total is exactly 220 points. The market is being thrown off on both sides of the ball. L.A. has scored more than projected in nine games. It has also allowed more than projected in nine. For the Magic, the OVER is 10-5 when they drop 94 points or more this season. L.A. has allowed nine of 12 home teams to reach this many on the scoreboard this year.