Cavs Overrated at Home: Take Blazers & 'Under' as Your NBA Picks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, December 8, 2015 2:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2015 2:20 PM UTC

The Cleveland Cavaliers own a three-game losing streak, and they've lost four in a row against the NBA odds. Can they cover a big number at home against Portland Tuesday night?

Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's NBA odds market opened Cleveland at -9 over Portland, with a total of right around 200. In the early betting the spread was holding steady, while the total dropped to 199.


The Situation
Portland (9-13 SU, 11-11 ATS) just had a two-game winning “streak” snapped by a 90-88 loss at Milwaukee Monday night. The Blazers trailed by six points with six minutes to go, rallied to lead by four points with just 20 seconds to go, but allowed the Bucks to score the last six points of the game.

On the night the Blazers shot just 38 percent from the field, hit just eight of 34 shots from 3-point land and turned the ball over 17 times.

Saturday Portland won at Minnesota 109-103, and Thursday the Blazers beat Indiana 123-111.

Cleveland (13-7 SU, 7-13 ATS), meanwhile, has lost three games in a row, after falling at Miami Saturday night 99-84. Playing without LeBron James, who was given the night off, the Cavs fell down by 18 points at the half and never threatened after that, missing ATS as five-point dogs.

Cleveland shot just 37 percent Saturday, while allowing the Heat to shoot 54 percent.

Friday the Cavs lost at New Orleans in overtime 114-108, and just before that they lost at home to Washington 97-85.


Recent History
These teams split their two meetings last season, each winning and covering on their home court. Portland took the first meeting 101-82, while Cleveland took the second 99-94.

James missed that second meeting, but the Cavs won anyway, and covered against a shorter line at -2.5. Cleveland G Kyrie Irving exploded for 55 points that night, but he won't play Tuesday, as he continues to miss time recovering from knee surgery.

La Marcus Aldridge tallied 54 points and nabbed 15 boards in those two games combined, but he doesn't play for the Blazers anymore.

Portland outshot the Cavs from the floor in those games combined by a 46-38 percent margin.

Also, both those games played UNDER totals of 207 and 203.


Totals Trends
Portland is 12-10 on the OVERS this season, as Blazers games have averaged 203 points.

Cleveland is 11-9 on the OVERS, as Cavs games have averaged 199 points.


Final Analysis
Statistically speaking, these two teams are close; they shoot about the same from the floor, shoot about as poorly from the free-throw line, and both do a good job on the boards. So the spread on this game seems slightly inflated. We like the Blazers plus the points as our NBA pick. Also, these teams played a pair of UNDERS last season, and we expect something similar for tonight.

NBA Picks: Portland +9 & UNDER 199 at Pinnacle

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