Cavaliers vs. Mavericks NBA Picks: Bet Dallas' Plus Odds At Home & Under 198.5

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, January 12, 2016 1:24 PM GMT

Our handicapper takes a look at the recent matchups, Trends, current ATS and SU records, Streaks, Injuries and other info backing the under and the the home dog in this game.

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Final Score Prediction: Mavericks 97 Cavaliers 94
NBA Picks: Mavericks +6 & Under 198½ 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks (22-16 SU, 22-15-1 ATS) welcome LeBron James and the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (26-9 SU, 15-19-1 ATS) to the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Tuesday night for this inter-conference showdown and first of two meetings between these teams this NBA Regular Season. NBA odds have opened the visiting Cavaliers as solid 6-point favorites (Pinnacle) with the game’s Total (Points) set at 198½ (Pinnacle). The Money Line odds here see Cleveland priced at -250 with the host Dallas lined at +210 on the takeback (Paddy Power). The Dallas Mavericks Team Total Points has been set at 96 (BetVictor) with the Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Points at 102 (BetVictor) while the 1st Half odds see the visiting Cavaliers at -3 -125 favorites (Winner).

 

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers (101.6 PF-95.1 PA) and Head Coach David Blatt enter this game on an impressive 7-game Win Streak, but Against the Spread (ATS), LeBron James & Company have been below average this season on the Road (7-11-1 ATS) and have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their L6 Road games, the only cover coming in Minneapolis against the Timberwolves laying 10 points in a 125-99 blowout win last Friday (Jan. 8). Cleveland (8-8 ATS at Home) and Owner Dan Gilbert and Team Manager David Griffin have assembled one of the best Rosters in the NBA and will probably make a run at the championship coming out of the Eastern Conference, like they did last season, but the milktoast Road Record (11-8 SU) and failure to cover away from Cleveland shows maybe the lack of a killer instinct other heavies the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs seem to have. In their L10 overall, Kyrie Irving and Cleveland are 8-2 SU but 4-5-1 ATS although the team has being playing some good basketball. The problems? Some soft opponents (76ers, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns) and just one ATS Road cover (Timberwolves) since that Christmas Day Loss (and cover) at Golden State in an NBA Finals rematch. Here, the Cavaliers (+275 to win NBA Championship, William Hill) will have to deal with Travel and losing (just) an hour on their Body Clocks going from Ohio (EST Time Zone) to Texas (CST) and facing a Mavericks team waiting for this game and wanting to protect the Western Conference’s honor, although the last time these two played was here in Dallas last season (March 10, 2015) where Cleveland bounced Dallas, 127-94, easily covering ATS as 4-point favorites (Total 201).

 

Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks (101.5 PF-100.7 PA) and Head Coach Rick Carlisle sit comfortably in 5th place in the rugged Western Conference, 6 games above the .500 mark (22-16) heading into this showdown with King James and his court on Tuesday night, currently tucked between the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies in the standings, which seems like an impressive thing for Owner Mark Cuban’s favorite hobby, his NBA basketball team. It seems that F Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks (150/1 to win NBA championship, Ladbrokes) have improved Defensively and ridding themselves of hothead Rajon Rondo and maybe not getting C DeAndre Jordan from the Clippers over the Summer and bringing in underrated SG Wesley Matthews (Trail Blazers) and signing University of Illinois product and PG Deron Williams—waived by the Nets—seems to have stoked the fires and made the Mavs backcourt enviable, especially when drooling at the depth at the PG position. Along with the 31-year-old Williams (14.1 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3.0 rpg), Dallas also has JJ Barea (10.0 ppg, 4.2 apg), Raymond Felton (9.6 ppg) and Wisconsin product Devin Harris (7.7 ppg). So, if you need a Point Guard, best call Mr. Shark Tank and wheel-and-deal, brother. And with Matthews (13.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.7 apg) veteran superstar and future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki (17.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg), SF Chandler Parsons (9.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and C Zaza Pachulia (10.7 ppg, 10.8 rpg), Dallas (10-7 ATS at Home) does seem to possess a calmer Starting 5 this season and the departure of C Tyson Chandler (Suns), SF Monta Ellis (Pacers) and aforementioned PG Rondo (Kings) now seems like addition through subtraction although there is still a lot of basketball left to be played this Winter and Spring. It does seem the Mavericks (7-3 SU L10, 5-4-1 ATS L10) are motivated a little by the (Clippers) Jordan changing his mind thing and may honestly be better off without him and playing with a collective chip on their blue, silver, black and white shoulders instead of having an overpaid player who makes Free Throws at around the same percentage that an average Middle School girl basketball player does (41.2% this season, 41.7 % career).

 

Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Picks
The last meeting between these two teams saw the Cavaliers rock the Mavericks here in Dallas last season, 127-94 as LeBron and the visitors easily covered as 4-point favorites with the game going well over the closing posted Total of 201. Trend-wise with the Total (Points), there are Under signs everywhere in this series, even airplanes flying by with banners screaming Under. Cleveland Unders are 19-16 this season while Dallas Unders are 22-16 and the Under is 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings in this series. Also, the Under is a robust 8-2 the L10 Cavaliers Road games (12-7 Under on Road for season) and the Under is 8-3 ATS in Cleveland’s L11 games overall. And as if that weren’t enough, the Under is 10-3 the L13 Mavericks games played here at Home at American Airlines Arena where Dallas Unders are 12-5 ATS. So, nothing about the Over here, except that last meeting which saw 221 points scored and a Total at 201. So it seems backing those Under Trends for a small and equal amount to the Home underdog side is a safe approach here, knowing that the Cavaliers are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 on the Road and that Nowitzki, Pachulia, Williams and Matthews will want to try to protect that Home-court in the first meeting (they meet again in Cleveland on March 16) knowing that they are facing one of the two best players in the NBA (James), the defending Eastern champs and a team riding a 7-game Win Streak. Can Dallas (11-8 ATS 1-Day Rest) snap that streak here? Yes ma’am. Will they come in thinking they can beat the Cavs (9-8 ATS 1-Day Rest) in this spot? Yes sir. And the Home-court, Nowitzki and Pachulia and depth at the PG spot and combined scoring from Williams, Barea, Felton and Harris along with new SG Matthews should be enough to pull off the perceived upset for the Mavericks (2-6 ATS L8 Tuesday games) and this may be worth a small Money Line play for the really bold (Mavericks +210, Paddy Power). Take Mavericks as your NBA pick tonight.