Cavaliers, Bulls to stay ‘under’ in Game 6 is Your NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 14, 2015 2:56 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 



After an ‘over’ keyed by an unworldly performance by LeBron James in Game 5, look for a bit less scoring Thursday night when those Cleveland Cavaliers (60-31, 25-20 away) this time pay a visit to the Chicago Bulls (56-37, 30-16 home) for Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinal from the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN, with the Cavaliers leading the series 3-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 192 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.


LeBron Goes Off
The great Chicago defense had limited James to 37.7 percent shooting in the first four games of this series, but he shot 14-for-24, 58.3 percent in Game 5 while going off for 38 points, along with 12 rebounds, six assists, three blocked shots, three steals and not a single turnover in a 106-101 Cleveland win that much to our delight easily went ‘over’ the total which closed at 190½! Thus James has his Cavs on the brink of advancing in this elimination game.

The Bulls are now ruing blowing an 11-point lead in Game 4 at home with a chance to take a 3-1 series lead in the contest where they became the losing NBA picks on James’s game-winning shot at the buzzer, offsetting a similar buzzer-beater by Derrick Rose of the Bulls in Game 3 in what as anyone can tell as of now was the first time ever there were game-winning shots by opposing teams at the final buzzer in consecutive playoff games in the same series.


Elimination Game ‘under’ System
We do not expect this Game 6 to be as high scoring as Tuesday’s contest, and that outcome has added 1½ points of value to the ‘under’ here. But before moving on with our analysis of this game, do not forget about the Elimination Game ‘under’ System posted in Sportsbook Review Forum by goldengreek, with some highlights being the ‘under’ going 70-36-2 in all Game 6s and Game 7s since 2004 including 38-16-1 form the second round onwards.

But back to this game, yes James can be unstoppable when he is in the zone as he was in Game 5, but Chicago has been one of his least favorite venues since the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau became the Bulls’ head coach. James was 18-for-55, 32.7 percent in Game 3 and Game 4 combined here at the United Center and he is now shooting a combined 35.9 percent over his last four playoff games in this arena.

Also do not forget that LeBron was deftly defended by Jimmy Butler the first four games, but he went to the bench with two early fouls in Game 5 before James went off. Do not expect those calls here in Chicago, so while James will probably score his fair share as usual do not expect a replay of Tuesday, and less scoring by James should directly correlate to less points for the Cavaliers, who averaged 95.0 points the first four games and 91.0 in the two games in Chicago.


Gasol Expected Back, But How Effective?
Meanwhile the Bulls have been struggling offensively since the opening game of this series and that has especially been true while shooting below 40 percent in each of the last three games. Yes, that streak coincided with Pau Gasol straining his hamstring in Game 3 and he has not played since, and indications are that Gasol will return tonight.

However, it remains to be seen just how effective he may be and even if he does suit up, he would be on a minute restriction of probably no more than 30 minutes, an indication that he would not be rushed back like this if this were a regular season game. So even if he does play, the impact on the offense as a whole may not be as much as some expect.

That would put more pressure on the Chicago defense, but that is nothing new for a unit that is allowing a miniscule 89.8 points per game at home throughout these playoffs.


Trending ‘under’
Finally, the ‘under’ is also 16-7 in the Bulls’ last 23 games vs. Central Division opponents and 4-0 in their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Add this all up and look for those ‘under’ trends to continue when Cleveland visits Chicago in a potential elimination Game 6 on Thursday.

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NBA Pick: Cavaliers, Bulls ‘under’ 192 (-109)