I am back with two more to try and keep the streak alive, as well as to cash some winning tickets for tonight’s NBA Finals Game 3 in Cleveland.
Alternate Point Spread
After cashing easily on the Warriors’ alternate point spread in Games 1 and 2, it makes me regret not adding more points onto the Warriors. Now in Game 3, with Kevin Love’s status in jeopardy, even the road trip to Cleveland is not giving me any doubt on the Warriors in this one. Right now, depending on the sportsbook, you can get the Warriors anywhere from -1 to +1.
Bet365 has the line sitting at +1, so there is a lot of money to be had by adding points to the Warriors tonight. For instance, at just -3 in favor of the Warriors, you can get NBA Odds of +138. I am diving right in for this one too.
Even though the Cavs are surely going to play like today is a win or go home game, the Warriors’ defense has been superb in the first two games of the NBA Finals. Their switching and small lineup has confused the Cavaliers on offense, and the once mighty Cavs offense, which is still leading the league in Offensive Rating for the playoffs, has been relegated to not even cracking 90 points in the first two games.
While Golden State will surely let up a little on defense in Game 3, their pace will likely quicken as well, which could throw the Cavs off too. Golden State has been fine playing a half court game so far, but on the road in the playoffs, they like to speed things up and put pressure on the home team. Considering all the pressure is on Cleveland anyway, and with Love looking questionable at best, I am laying the points with Golden State at -3.
My Pick: Warriors -3 (+138) at Bet365
A lot of the NBA Odds for both team and player props are somewhat tardy coming out today, so while teasers aren’t specifically a team prop, I am throwing mine out there as such here in Game 3 tonight, to try and keep my perfect streak alive. With similar methods going into this one, I am teasing the Warriors to +5 here in this one off their +1 NBA Odds at Bet365, and for the total, I am going with the over here tonight.
Even with the potential of not having Love, you know Lebron James is not going down without a fight in this one. I could easily see him shredding the Warriors’ defense in this one like he did in the Finals last season, and as mentioned above, the Warriors are bound to start playing faster.
On the road in the playoffs this season, the Warriors are playing at a pace of more than 103 possessions per 48 minutes. That is a lot faster than they have been playing in the Finals, and overall it’s about four or five possessions faster than they have played at home in the postseason. On top of that is their defense, which has been much better at home. The Dubs have a Defensive Rating that is 10 points higher on the road than at home in the playoffs, and considering they are still really good on offense, I think they can overcome any ramping up of Cleveland’s defense here in Game 3.
My Pick: 2-team teaser: Warriors +5 & OVER 20