Capper Suggests to Take the Heat -3 vs. Knicks

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 30, 2014 3:47 PM GMT

This NBA handicapper notes that New York has been the worst team in the Association to bet on so far this season, going just 5-12 ATS. And now the Knicks are (probably) playing without their best player. How might they fare against Miami Sunday evening at the Garden?

Heat-Knicks Betting Odds
Most of the NBA odds waited to post a line on this game, because of the injury situations with Miami's Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and New York's Carmelo Anthony. When a line did come out mid-Sunday morning most shops were chalking Miami at -3, with a total of right around 189. Bettors might be wise to wait for more certain injury information before getting down on this game.

Also, those who believe the Knicks might win this game outright could get a price of +140 on the moneyline at Pinnacle.

 

Heat-Knicks: The Situation
Miami, sans LeBron, started 3-0 this season, and got to 5-2. But the Heat then lost three in a row, including home games to Indiana and Milwaukee. Miami then won three of four, but last time out, last Tuesday, the Heat lost at home to Golden State 114-97.

Miami led the Warriors by a bucket halfway through the fourth quarter, then went cold, and didn't score for five minutes, letting Golden State pull away. For the game the Heat shot just 39 percent from the floor, while allowing the Warriors to shoot a scorching 57 percent, all in coming up short on the spread as seven-point home dogs. At 8-7 Miami owns the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference.

New York started this season 2-1, with help from that upset of the Cavs in Cleveland. The Knicks then lost seven games in a row, five of which we'd categorize as “close.” They then halted that losing streak with a victory over Denver, then lost back-to-back road games at Milwaukee and Minnesota. They then beat Philly, but everybody does. And since then New York has lost three more in a row, including a 105-78 decision at Durant-less Oklahoma City Friday night.

The Knicks, playing without Anthony, fell down by 17 after one quarter against the Thunder, later trailed by 37, shot just 39 percent from the field, made just two of 19 shots from 3-point land and got outrebounded 64-40, all in whiffing on the spread as eight-point dogs.At 4-13 overall New York owns the 12th-best record in the Eastern Conference.

 

Heat-Knicks Recent History
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last season Miami Heat took three of four games from New York. But James played in all four of those games for the Heat, and Wade played in three of them. So we're not going to extrapolate too much from last season's series when handicapping this contest.

 

Heat-Knicks, By the Numbers
Miami Heat ranks sixth in the league in FG shooting at 46 percent, first in 3-point shooting at 39 percent and 15th in FT shooting at 76 percent. The Heat also rank 26th in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent, 27th in rebounding at -3 per game, and own a 21/14 assist-to-turnover ratio.

New York Knicks ranks 15th in FG shooting at 45.5 percent, second in 3-point shooting at 39 percent and 12th in FT shooting at 77 percent. The Knicks also rank 14th in FG defense at 45 percent, 28th in rebounding at -3 per game, and also own an A/TO ratio of 21/14.

 

Heat-Knicks Betting Trends

Miami is 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season.

New York is 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS at home.

The Heat are 7-8 on the totals this season, as their games have averaged 195 points.

New York is 9-7-1 on the totals this season, as Knicks games have averaged 194 points.

 

Injury Update
For New York, Anthony has missed recent action with a bad back, and he's very questionable to play Sunday. Meanwhile, Miami's Wade has missed recent action with a bad hamstring, and he's also very questionable for today. Also, Bosh is dealing with a sore hip, but is expected to play.

 

Heat-Knicks Free Pick
This is a tough one, because of the key injuries on both sides. But when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of making an NBA pick on this contest there's just no way we can recommend New York without Anthony. So we like Miami, the better team at a manageable spread.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Heat at -3 at 5Dimes