Capper's Sharp NBA Pick Is 'Over' 199 As Cavaliers & Wizards Meet Tonight

Charles Stark

Wednesday, January 6, 2016 3:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2016 3:33 PM UTC

The Cavaliers and the Wizards meet tonight! Find out our NBA picks in this preview, as we answer why this game should see a few more points than odds makers anticipate.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 199½
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


NBA Odds Overview
NBA odds have the total line on this game pretty high at 199.5 like at Pinnacle -105. Looking at the trends of these two teams that total seems too high, but for one of Wednesday's NBA picks, I am going to go against the trend today and look for Cleveland to continue to roll out points with Irving in the lineup. I also believe Washington will bounce back from their poor scoring effort versus Miami.


Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is averaging 100.5 points per game while shooting 44.8% from the field, and allowing 94.7 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field. There is a big difference between Cleveland when Kyrie Irving plays and when he does not, and tonight after having a day off I expect him to get a lot of minutes. In three of the last four games Cleveland has played the only time they went under 100 points was without Irving in the lineup. Along with his scoring they seem to just run with a better tempo up and down the floor. That necessarily has not led to games that go over the total as the Cavs went under the total line in two of those games, but they are at least putting up point on their end. On the year, Cleveland has been more of an under team going 14-18 on the over/under total line, and after a streak of five over the totals around the end of November they have gone 4-13 on the over/under total line. Again, as Irving continues get healthy we should see Cleveland start to reverse this trend. Offensively, Cleveland is one of the more efficient teams in the league ranking eighth in shooting efficiency and sixth in effective field-goal percentage. They also are deadly beyond the arc where they like to shoot averaging 28.1 shots from distance per game which ranks fourth in the NBA, and making an average of 10 per game which ranks third. Defensively, this is a much better Cleveland team than last year ranking in the top 10 in most defensive categories, tonight though I'm anticipating for them to continue to push the pace which should allow Washington to put up some points.


Washington Wizards
Washington is averaging 100.7 points per game while shooting 44.6% from the field, and allowing 103.8 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field. They do tend to score a bit more at home averaging about 102 points per game but they are struggling, as mentioned, without Beal. What I do like about Washington putting up some points tonight is that they do still have some talent and they were absolutely embarrassed their last game at home putting up to 75 points, with a woeful seven points in the second quarter. On that fact alone I look for Washington to do everything they can to put the ball on the bucket tonight and get that bad taste out of their mouth. Offensively, they are mostly a subpar team but they do move the ball well averaging 23.2 assist per game which ranks seventh in the league. They also are good in getting out in transition and turning turnovers into buckets averaging 18 fast-break points per game which ranks second in the league. Defensively, they have been one of the worst teams in the NBA especially in opponent shooting percentage ranking 27th in the league. Worse than that is they rank 28th in the league in opponent three point shooting percentage, and that could spell a lot of points for a Cleveland team that can get hot from distance really fast.

There is a reason odds makers have this game set at 199.5. For one of your NBA picks, expect these two teams to get up and down tonight and go against their recent under trends. Expect Cleveland to continue a pretty torrid pace as long as Irving is in the lineup.

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