Capper Favors Suns -4 vs. Bucks for Tonight's Free NBA Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 6, 2015 5:36 PM GMT

An analysis of the NBA standings points out that Milwaukee is solidly entrenched in the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff queue.  Meanwhile, Phoenix enters at 20-16 SU, clinging to the final playoff spot in the more arduous Western Conference.

Phoenix Suns (-4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks 8:05 ET
An analysis of the NBA standings points out that Milwaukee is solidly entrenched in the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff queue.  Meanwhile, Phoenix enters at 20-16 SU, clinging to the final playoff spot in the more arduous Western Conference.  There are numerous edges the Suns will have for this contest. 

Milwaukee is the greatest moneymaker in the NBA this season at 24-11 ATS, including 9-3 ATS of late.  Must note, however, that recent injuries are beginning to take their toll on this Milwaukee team. Once again this evening, they will play without Sanders, Ilyasova, and Parker.  Those are 3 key components to the Bucks' offensive front line.  Without those 3 in the lineup, it severely reduces the normal advantage the Bucks would have upfront vs. the Suns.  Nonetheless, the Milwaukee team is playing outstanding defense.  In the previous 6 games, Milwaukee is allowing just 88 PPG and 38% shooting.  Much of Milwaukee's success, however, has come on the road where they are 16-5 ATS.  At home, Milwaukee has dropped their last 3 contests to Indiana, Atlanta and Charlotte.  This has clearly been the Bucks' worst role in recent seasons.  In fact, they are a long term 20-31 ATS as home underdog. 

Phoenix is backed by a strong series history, positive short-term success and a strong road record.  In the last 8 seasons, Phoenix has gone 13-4 SU in this series.  The Suns enter on a red hot run of their own at 9-1 ATS, as well as 8-2 SU.  They have covered 6/7 of their last games on the road.  This has improved their road record to 37-24 ATS last 1+Y.  The Suns, as always, feature strong guard play behind Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas.  With injured stars on the bench, Milwaukee will not have an advantage against a weaker Phoenix interior. 

There a couple of long-term factors working for us in NBA play this season.  For the year, when West faces East, they are 122-78 SU, including 22-12 ATS of late.  In addition, road favorites continue to make money with an 89-57 ATS mark.  Combined with the inverted home/road dichotomy, a strong series history and injuries to the Milwaukee front court, for my NBA picks I believe Phoenix has the capability for a double digit victory tonight against NBA odds. 

Free NBA Picks: Take Phoenix Suns -4 at 5Dimes

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