Can’t Spell ‘Thunder’ Without ‘Under’ Versus Nets

Tuesday, March 12, 2019 11:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 12, 2019 11:39 PM UTC

The Brooklyn Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder have been going ‘under’ a lot recently. Wednesday’s game figures to be more of the same.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 11:
19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 26-11 Totals

Brooklyn (36-33 SU, 37-32 ATS) at Oklahoma City (41-26 SU, 35-32 ATS)

Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: Under
Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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There’s a mystery matchup on Wednesday’s NBA odds board. The Oklahoma City Thunder are hosting the Brooklyn Nets, and for some reason, the lines aren’t up yet as we go to press. There aren’t any major injuries for either team, so we’re guessing this has to do with Oklahoma City’s schedule – they also play Thursday, on the road versus the Indiana Pacers.

Which gives us even more reason to put the ‘under’ in our NBA picks. That figured to be the right call regardless, but the prospect of OKC holding out players for “load management” makes the ‘under’ even juicier. Let’s riggidy-roll.

Down With The Soreness

The Thunder, bless their hearts, have driven the ‘under’ to the pay window seven times in their last nine games. The ‘over’ is 18-13 at home on the season, but each of their last three games at the Thunderdome have gone ‘under’ instead – both with and without Paul George (plus-5.0 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) in the lineup. He’s been bothered by a sore right shoulder, and has a 47.3 true shooting percentage since his return from a three-game absence, down from 61.8 percent in February.

Sadly for our purposes, Markieff Morris (minus-3.9 OBPM, minus-1.5 DBPM) left Monday’s game against Utah with a sore neck, and given his neck issues this season, Morris might not be back for a while. But the next man up at power forward is Patrick Patterson (minus-2.8 OBPM, minus-0.6 DBPM), so we’ll call it a wash. And again, maybe the Thunder will cut us some slack and save a starter or two for Thursday’s game.

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Similar to LeVerts scoreless bobble head night, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson had his bobblehead night for the Nets yesterday and also went scoreless @ChrisCoteESPN @billygil @LeBatardShow @MichaelRyanRuiz @Stugotz790 @LeBatard_Reddit

— Adam Larson (@ajlars13) 12 de março de 2019
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None-DMC

Brooklyn have put together a nice bounce-back season after three years in the wilderness, but they’re also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, so we’re going to avoid the spread here and pound the ‘under,’ which the Nets have cashed in five times in a row. They rank No. 19 overall in offense at 106.9 points per 100 possessions, and No. 13 in defense at 106.9 points allowed. Nice, to a decimal point.

DeMarre Carroll (minus-0.9 OBPM, minus-0.8 DBPM) has been ruled out of Wednesday’s game with a hyperextended knee, which may not look like much, but it means Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (minus-4.3 OBPM, plus-1.0 DBPM) should get some extra burn, along with Rodions Kurucs (minus-1.6 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM). It’s too bad Hollis-Jefferson’s career has been limited by injuries; he looked like a quality two-way player in the making, but his offense has cratered this year – as indicated by his 46.3 true shooting percentage. We’re going ‘under’ like the Titanic, folks. It’s just the right thing to do.

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