The Boston Celtics seem to be rebounding from losing Gordon Hayward for the season and have won their last three games in a row. The Miami Heat have not started out the season as they probably would’ve hoped but can they find a way to pull off the small upset tonight at home?
Boston is on a three game winning streak most recently taking down a talented Milwaukee team in Milwaukee. I think they will have a little bit more trouble tonight against a Miami team that has stumbled just a somewhat out of the gates but are in a good spot to rebound at home. Oddsmakers have made the road Celtics a small favorite which makes sense but to me that just puts some good value on taking a solid well-coached Miami team on the plus money line. What has surprised me so far about Miami is the fact they have been very poor in defending from beyond the arc allowing opponents to shoot 43.2% from distance which ranks last in the NBA. However, they were one of the best teams in the league last year in defending from range allowing opponents to shoot just 34.3% so I expect their early-season struggles will get mitigated as the season continues.
Boston has stepped things up defensively and has been good ranking in the top 10 in most defensive categories highlighted by ranking sixth in opponent shooting efficiency. Tonight though they are facing a very good Miami team at home that can put the ball in the bucket as they rank in the top 10 in most offensive statistics and have been really good shooting 46.6% overall. Both teams are well coached defensively, and while Miami doesn’t show it so far, eventually their statistics across the board will improve. Currently, the Celtics are not shooting the ball particularly well but have been good from beyond the arc shooting 36.5% from distance which ranks seventh in the NBA. But this plays into Miami’s strength so far this season on the defensive end as they are allowing opponents to get up just 18.5 attempts from distance per game and only allowing opponents to make eight per game which ranks them first and fourth in the NBA respectively. Look for Miami to get back on track tonight with a big win against a well-coached Boston team. The value here, in my opinion, lies squarely on the Miami Heat.