By the Numbers: Road Warriors Rule in Sunday's NBA Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 19, 2017 1:28 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 19, 2017 1:28 PM UTC

By the Numbers is a weekly NBA picks column where we analyze the matchups, historical trends, and the relevant odds. Let's take a look at Sunday's slate and cash a pair of winning tickets!

Pacers (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Heat (7-8 SU, 5-8-2 ATS)

* Miami is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.

* Miami is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

* Miami is 0-10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.

* Indiana is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.

* Indiana is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.

* Indiana is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.

The last time these teams met the NBA odds makers installed the Heat as 9 ½ point home favorites. Fast forward just one month later and although the venue is the same the line is quite a bit different. Today we see a number reflective of the outcome of that October 21st contest when Miami held off a furious Indiana rally to capture a 112-108 victory, as the Heat are now 4 ½ point home chalk across the board.

Despite the fact that we took advantage of that lopsided point spread in their first meeting, we will stay the course and back the Pacers once again at a far less appealing number. Indiana has won and covered three of their last four games and this matchup, against the 26th ranked scoring offense, leads me to believe that Indiana will at least keep it close again or win this game outright. Back the Pacers in your NBA picks on Sunday.

Free NBA Pick: Pacers +4 ½Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Warriors (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) vs. Nets (6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS)

* Brooklyn is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.

* Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

* Brooklyn is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of 11.0 or greater.

* Golden State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

* Golden State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.

* Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on zero day's rest.

Many bettors are reluctant to back teams on the second leg of back-to-back games and more often than not will even fade teams in those spots. However, the Warriors are not like other teams and although they do not appear to be the juggernaut of a few years ago when they won their first 24 games of the season and cruised to a 73-9 regular season record, they are still formidable and one could make the case they are even better with Kevin Durant on this season's squad.

But the games must be played on the court and not on paper and this matchup is as lopsided as it has been in years past. Yes, the Nets are not nearly as pathetic as they have been over the last several years but would it surprise me to see a score illustrative of 11 months ago when the Warriors claimed a 117-101 on Brooklyn soil? No, which is why we will lay the lumber and back the visitors in this one.

Free NBA Pick: Warriors -12 ½Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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