By the Numbers NBA Betting: Get Out from the Cold and Enjoy the Heat

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, January 14, 2018 2:05 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2018 2:05 PM UTC

By the Numbers is a column published each week throughout the basketball season that hones in on Sunday's game time matchups, historical trends and the current NBA odds, all used to produce one or two top picks on the board. Let's see what today holds in store for us.

Free NBA Pick: Heat -2
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Bucks (22-19 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Heat (24-17 SU, 6-11 ATS)

* Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on three or more days rest.

* Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

* Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on one day's rest.

* Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.

The Miami Heat may not have a star on par with Milwaukee's "Greek Freak" but head coach Erik Spoelstra is putting the pieces together and creating what many choose to call 'team chemistry". Whatever it is, it's working because aside from Boston Miami is the hottest team in the league with six consecutive wins, and covering the spread in four of those six contests.

Miami has enjoyed a three-day respite and is 6-2 ATS over their last eight in this spot. In addition, Heat guard Tyler Johnson and forward Justise Winslow are poised to return to the court after being sidelined with neck and knee injuries respectively. Conversely, Milwaukee is coming off a loss as 4 ½ point home dogs to the Warriors on Friday night which was the fourth time in the last five opportunities that the Bucks have failed to cover the NBA odds.

This will be the first meeting of the year between the two clubs but Miami demolished Milwaukee in their last two games of the 2016-2017 season by an average margin of 15 points. Here we have a well-rested team, enjoying home court advantage, and possibly getting two players back in their lineup today, laying just two points against a struggling adversary. Sounds like a no-brainer to me so let's back the Heat in our NBA picks.

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