By the Numbers: Highway Robbers Stealing Your Bookies' Money in our NBA Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, December 3, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 3, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

Each Sunday By the Numbers delivers two premium NBA picks based on historical trends, game time matchups, and the prevailing NBA odds. Let's discuss which sides give us the most bang for our betting buck!

Warriors (17-6 SU, 10-13 ATS) vs. Heat (11-11 SU, 8-12-2 ATS)

* Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games.

* Miami is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 home games.

* Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

* Miami is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Golden State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.

* Golden State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

The last time these teams met, which also happened to be their first meeting of the 2017-2018 season, the Warriors drew away to a 97-80 victory and that was with Hassan Whiteside suiting up for the Heat. This time around the Heat's hundred-million-dollar man won't be in uniform due to a knee injury and that will make life much easier down low for the Warriors. Whiteside led the team in rebounds (12.7 per game) and blocks (1.6 per game) before he departed and the void he leaves is impossible to fill for the home team.

Golden State has averaged nearly 124 points over their last five games while the Heat has not even averaged the century-mark during that span. The Warriors simply have too many weapons in their arsenal and with no one to stop them, this one should be a blowout in the Sunshine State. Back the road chalk in your NBA picks on Sunday.

Free NBA Pick: Warriors -10
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Spurs (15-7 SU, 11-9-2 ATS) vs. Thunder (9-12 SU, 7-13-1 ATS)

* Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games.

* Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.

* Oklahoma City is 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

* San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.

* San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

* San Antonio is 3-1 ATS vs. Oklahoma City over their last four meetings.

The San Antonio Spurs never quit and even when their detractors talk of the team getting old, the Spurs always manage to remain as one of the elite teams in the league. Once again San Antonio has been able to overcome adversity with the season-long injury to Kawhi Leonard and now sits at 15-7 straight up and just 2 ½ games back of the Western Conference-leading Houston Rockets.

I bring this up because somehow the NBA odds are reflecting the Spurs as 4 ½ point road dogs to a team that has failed to beat them in three of their last four meetings, including a 104-101 loss earlier this season when the Spurs were without the services of their All-World forward Kawhi Leonard. Yes, the venue has shifted from San Antonio to Oklahoma City for this one but the song remains the same. These are two teams that are built on defense with the Spurs allowing just 97.5 PPG (2nd) and the Thunder surrendering 99.6 PPG (3rd). However, San Antonio has a distinct edge on the boards and will be able to, at the very least, keep this one close if not win the game outright.

Free NBA Pick: Spurs +4 ½
Best Line Offered at JustBet

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