Back The Over In Must-Win Game For The Raptors


Milwaukee Bucks (2-0 SU & ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (0-2 SU & ATS)

Sunday, May 19, 2019 7:00 PM EST

NBA Free Picks: Over

Recommended Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Overall Market Outlook For Game 3

To win straight up bettors can find the Raptors priced anywhere from -129 to -135, depending on your top sportsbook of choice. All things considered, there is value in such low odds. Theoretically, all is not lost. The Raptors have every chance to get into the win column tonight in front of their adoring fans at the buzzing ScotiaBank Arena in Toronto.

That said, their money line odds have declined from an opening -145 for the Raptors, which is a move that indicates just how the public is betting this game. The Bucks have almost 60% of consensus bets to win outright as the nominal road underdogs, a bet that is available anywhere from +110 to +117 – the latter of which is a bet available at 5Dimes.

That favourable outlook for the Raptors extends to spread betting markets where the Raptors hold court as the nominal home favourites, currently priced at -2 on the NBA odds board. Bettors should note that this is also a decline from their opening -3-points with which bookies opened betting on for game 3. Public favours the road underdogs to the tune of 55% of consensus bets.

Finally, the totals opened at 220.5 with the OVER and UNDER priced at -110. Since open doors the total has held firm with several sportsbooks while some have dropped it by a sliver to 220 and serve up alternative juice such as Heritage where the total is at 220 with the OVER and UNDER priced at -105.

OVER/UNDER Trends To Spot

Given this series is just two games deep the cross-section is too small to give an indication of which way this matchup might lean here. Moreover, the first two games are split on the OVER/UNDER with game 1 closing UNDER the 218.5 total set by bookmakers, and game 2 going OVER the 219.0 total. Game 1 finished -10.5 points under the total bookmakers rolled out while game 2 went over by +9 points.

What is interesting to note is that game 3 opened with a higher total than both previous games closed on.

The Bucks have split the OVER/UNDER in their last six games evenly. Game 2 marked their first OVER result in their last four games. Similarly, the Raptors have gone 3-3 in total betting in their last six games, and game 2 marked their first UNDER in their last three games.

On the season, the Raptors are 50-45-1 in OVER/UNDER betting which yields a 52.6 % OVER outcome. Bucks are 47-45-1 in OVER/UNDER betting which yields a higher 51.1% outcome for the OVER.

To be fair, this game could go either way in total betting. That bookies went to press with a slightly higher total suggests this game is expected to be more offensive-minded than both previous games, particularly by the Raptors who are faced with a near must-win game. It’s a slight edge to the OVER by the stats and according to notional thinking and as such we’re tickling the OVER on our NBA picks.