Bucks With Great Value To Cover As Small Underdogs

Sunday, May 19, 2019 7:12 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 19, 2019 7:12 PM UTC

As game 3 of the Eastern Conference final is set to get underway up north, we bring you a primer on the spread betting markets currently on tap along with some key trends to spot for your NBA picks.

<p style="text-align:center"><strong>Milwaukee Bucks (2-0 SU &amp; ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (0-2 SU &amp; ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sunday, May 19, 2019 7:00 PM EST</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>NBA Free Picks: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/milwaukee-bucks-vs-toronto-raptors-3795287/odds/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Milwaukee Bucks +2 (-101)</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4435&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">Pinnacle</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3795287, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,999991,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Toronto Raptors look to get back on track in game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final. Milwaukee Bucks have a commanding 2-0 lead and a third straight win tonight would almost certainly spell doom.</p><p>To all intents and purposes, it’s a must-win game for tonight’s hosts. Can they come through for their Toronto faithful?</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The Inside guys head to Jurassic Park TONIGHT! 🦖🇨🇦&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Coverage of Game 3 between the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Raptors?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@Raptors&lt;/a&gt; and Bucks tips off at 6:30pm ET on TNT! &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAPlayoffs?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NBAPlayoffs&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/ZaQ1o3WN2w\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/ZaQ1o3WN2w&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NBAonTNT/status/1130125962329198592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;19 de maio de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><p>The No.2 seeds may be down in the series but they are up on the NBA odds board, installed as the nominal home favourites across sports betting markets. Now, let’s be clear home court advantage is the foremost deciding force in the way this market is cast. It’s certainly not based on Toronto’s form in this series.</p><p>Naturally, the Raptors could potentially flip the script, but they will really need to make a fist of it and find a way to counter the versatility and depth of the Milwaukee bench. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">They didn’t have an answer in the previous two games</a>.</p><p>Not sure which is worse: that they may have fritted away their best chance to get one up on the Bucks in game 1. After leading for the better part of three quarters, they bottled it in the last 15 minutes of the game. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/free-nba-pick-bucks-need-a-better-start-to-game-2-against-raptors/90197/" target="_blank" title="Can Bucks Shake Their First Quarter Struggles Vs. Raptors?">Or the manner in which they were crushed in game 2</a>, outmuscled and outplayed through four quarters?</p><p>Whichever it may be it’s certainly had an impact in the way public betting is coming down the wire. Toronto’s slight favourable outlook in spread betting markets has them trading currently at -2 across the board. This is, however, down from an opening -3-points that bookmakers went to press with, a dip that is a direct result of the wave of bets going towards the Bucks as far as consensus betting reports show us. Indeed, the Bucks have the slight edge in public opinion with approximately 55% of bets going towards the top seeds to cover as the road underdogs.</p><p><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/" target="_blank" title="Discuss this game at SBR's NBA Betting Forum">Does the public have it right?</a></p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Them: Giannis, minutes before this game you were just named an MVP Finalist...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Giannis: I don't care about that right now. I care about going to Toronto and focusing on Game 3.&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/FearTheDeer?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#FearTheDeer&lt;/a&gt; | &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAPlayoffs?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NBAPlayoffs&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/SRPQMS9rOe\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/SRPQMS9rOe&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Bucks/status/1129793258626985986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;18 de maio de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><p>Milwaukee Bucks have the momentum behind back-to-back wins in this series at home. They covered both those game with relative ease. In game 1, the Bucks covered as the -6.5 favourites behind a 108-100 victory. In game 2, they routed the Raptors in a 125-103 victory to cover as the -6.5 home favourites.</p><p>All told, it marked their sixth straight win and cover of the playoffs, extending their formidable run of form through two series. That speaks to a very specific intent, confidence and command of the game and playoffs befitting a top seed, which is hard to overlook.</p><p>In fact, a closer look reveals the following market performance by the Bucks (Table 1).</p><p><u>Table 1: Milwaukee Bucks Trends Against the Spread in Last 6 Games</u></p><table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" style="width:700px"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Date</strong></td> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Home/Away</strong></td> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Opponent</strong></td> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Closing Odds</strong></td> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Win By</strong></td> <td style="text-align:center"><strong>Differentia</strong>l</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">04/30</td> <td style="text-align:center">Home</td> <td style="text-align:center">Boston</td> <td style="text-align:center">-7.5</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 21</td> <td style="text-align:center">+13.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">05/03</td> <td style="text-align:center">Away</td> <td style="text-align:center">Boston</td> <td style="text-align:center">+1.5</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 7</td> <td style="text-align:center">+8.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">05/06</td> <td style="text-align:center">Away</td> <td style="text-align:center">Boston</td> <td style="text-align:center">+1.0</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 12</td> <td style="text-align:center">+13.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">05/08</td> <td style="text-align:center">Home</td> <td style="text-align:center">Boston</td> <td style="text-align:center">-8.5</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 25</td> <td style="text-align:center">+16.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">05/15</td> <td style="text-align:center">Home</td> <td style="text-align:center">Toronto</td> <td style="text-align:center">-6.5</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 8</td> <td style="text-align:center">+1.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center">05/17</td> <td style="text-align:center">Home</td> <td style="text-align:center">Toronto</td> <td style="text-align:center">-6.5</td> <td style="text-align:center">W by 22</td> <td style="text-align:center">+15.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table><p><br />We can see that the Bucks average winning margin (win by column above) over these last six games tallies up to 95 points. Divide that by six games 95/6 = 15.8 points. We can also see that the differential as a result (the average amount of points they cover the spread by) is quite significant as well at +11.41666 (differential average column). Add to that the fact that the Bucks are 10-1-0 ATS in the playoffs with a 15.3 winning margin on average and they boast a +7.4 differential over the course of the 11 games played thus far. Yikes.</p><p>In short, if this trend holds true the Bucks could make a meal of their laughable <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">+2 underdog odds</a>.</p>
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