Bucks vs. Heat NBA Picks: Will Champs Dominate Again?

The Milwaukee Bucks rolled through the Brooklyn Nets on opening night and are favored on the road in Miami against a much better defensive team in the Heat.

The Heat couldn't put it together last season after their NBA Finals run in the bubble, but - rested and reloaded - Miami might be one of the dark horses to get back to the conference or NBA Finals.

Milwaukee (1-0 against the spread) will be one of Miami's (0-0 ATS) main Eastern Conference competitors. The NBA oddsmakers have the Bucks as small favorites on the road, with a total of 224 points.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday's NBA matchup between the Bucks and the Heat (Odds via Barstool Sportsbook, UniBet, BetMGM).

Bucks vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, October 21, 8 p.m. ETTV: Bally Sports FloridaLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Bucks vs. Heat Odds Analysis

This spread has been shortening ever since it opened. Even with the Bucks winning their first game in dominant fashion, the Heat have been taking money. And while there are still some +2.5 odds out right now, most shops have shortened to +1.5 for the Heat at home.

The total has been sitting steady at 224 points, but don't be surprised if it sees some movement towards the under later in the evening. The Heat are a much better defensive team than the Nets and will make the Bucks work a lot harder, especially early in the game.

Bucks vs. Heat Picks

Heat +2.5 (-109 via Barstool Sportsbook)Under 224 (-109 via UniBet)Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists (+105 via BetMGM)

Bucks vs. Heat Predictions

Heat +2.5 (-109)

Naturally, observers are going to look at the Bucks' opening night win and think tonight will be automatic on the road. However, there are several things working against the Bucks here that may lead to Miami being the play.

The defending champs won't have the benefit of a jacked-up home crowd after a ring ceremony. The Bucks turned what is usually a fade opportunity into a bet on spot on opening night when they blasted the Nets essentially from the opening tip. Now they are on the road, against a much more tuned-up defense and a powerful team playing in its home opener.

The Heat match up much better against the Bucks than the Nets did and with a plethora of solid defenders to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo, I see the Heat keeping this one within one possession.

Under 224 (-109)

Combined with the Heat taking points, the Under is also a solid play for this game. Miami's pace is going to be much slower than Brooklyn's and I sincerely doubt the Heat will allow the Bucks to come in and drop 30-plus points in any quarter, especially the first.

Miami's best way to cover this spread or win this one outright will be to first stop the Milwaukee big three, but, even more importantly, the Heat will need to slow the Bucks' fastbreak.

Erik Spoelstra's squad will have to eat clock in pursuit of the best shot possible. That would wear down the Bucks' defense and insure Miami is in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter.

Last season, only the Knicks were a slower-paced team than the Heat. I don't see them playing any faster this season and in this specific matchup. Miami isn't built to win shootouts.

The home team will need to engage defensively and avoid turnovers on offense. If that happens, I think the number of possessions will be low enough here to cash the Under.

Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists (+105)

Bucks point guard Jrue Holiday had to leave Milwaukee's opening night game with a heel injury, but he has since been ruled probable for Thursday's road game.

As mentioned above, this game should be low-scoring, which means opportunities for assists will be lacking as well. If the game follows such a script, I can't see Holiday dishing out many assists tonight.

His matchup against Jimmy Butler or Kyle Lowry will be much tougher than the defenders from the Nets. He'll also be tasked with guarding those veterans on the other end. The Heat will be up in Holiday's face on Thursday and if this total flies Under, prop Unders should hit, as well.

I'm expecting this one to correlate with our total Under and Heat +2.5 picks.