Bucks and Mavericks to Get ‘Over’ the Total is Your NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 28, 2015 8:49 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 28, 2015 8:49 PM UTC

The Milwaukee Bucks have shown improvement on offense as of late, and a continuance of that could key an ‘over’ when they visit a Dallas Mavericks team used to high-scoring games.


[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882925, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NFL Pick: Bucks, Mavericks ‘Over’ 202 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Points may be bountiful in the Lone Star State Monday night when the Milwaukee Bucks (12-19, 15-16 ATS) and their improved offense as of late pay a visit to the always ‘over’ friendly Dallas Mavericks (17-13, 18-12 ATS) at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX at 8:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Southwest.

The posted total at Bovada is 201 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -115.


Second Behind the Spurs
The Western Conference is having what is generally considered a down season compared to its usual standards, but one team possibly exceeding expectations is the Mavericks, as at 17-13, Dallas has now moved up to second in the Southwest Division behind the team with the second best record in the NBA, the 26-6 San Antonio Spurs.

The Bucks on the other hand have leveled off in their second season under Coach Jason Kidd, as while they remain the only team in the league to be the winning NBA pick over the Golden State Warriors this season, that has not been enough to keep Milwaukee out of the Central Division basement at 12-19.


Scoring More Points Lately
That disappointing record for the Bucks comes on the heels of being one of the more pleasant surprises in the league last season, when they made the NBA Playoffs as a six-seed and extended the Chicago Bulls to six games in the first round. The good news for the Bucks though is that they have been scoring more points as of late, in fact topping 100 points in three straight games before a 111-90 home loss to Toronto on Saturday.

Yes, Milwaukee remains 27th in the league in scoring with 96.4 points per game, but that average is up to 101.3 points over the past seven games, during which the Bucks have passed the century mark four times. Unfortunately the defense remains disappointing after playing well in Kidd’s first year at Milwaukee last season, as it is currently 20th in the league in points against at 102.2 per game and has allowed a disturbing average of 107.2 points in the last six games.

That defense allowed eight three-point field goals to the Raptors in fourth quarter alone on Saturday, as the Bucks were outscored in that final stanza 35-11 after actually entering the quarter with a three-point lead. We like the chances of the Milwaukee offense to continue its improvement vs. the Dallas defense here, but at the same time the weak perimeter defense looks extremely vulnerable to the Mavericks’ sharp-shooters.


Barea on a Tear
Dallas is 12th in the league in scoring with 101.8 points per game, but ironically the offense has actually perked up since an injury to point guard Deron Williams, with J.J. Barea averaging 29 points over the last two games including nailing seven three-point buckets in a 118-111 win over the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. In fact, the Dallas team shot a phenomenal 16-for-33, 48.5 percent from three-point land in the victory vs. a usually good Bulls’ defense.

The Mavericks are now facing a softer defense, and furthermore they may get even more offense in the starting lineup with Chandler Parsons seemingly set to make his first start of the year. Chandler has been coming off the bench while recovering from off-season knee surgery, but he matched his season high with 20 points off the bench on Saturday to go along with five rebounds and five assists.


Incredible ‘Over’ Trends
Finally, there are some amazing ‘over’ trends at work for this contest as it is now a fantastic 20-3 in the Bucks’ last 23 games vs. teams with winning records, as well as 21-6 in the last 27 head-to-head meetings between these clubs overall.

We really see no reason why those trends should not continue here in the first meeting between these teams this season, so go ‘over’ again when Milwaukee visits Dallas on Monday.

comment here