Bucks vs. Celtics Game 5 NBA Picks: Series Returns to Boston With Teams Deadlocked

Through four games, the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics is all knotted up at two games apiece. Who will prevail in a crucial Game 5? Check out our Bucks-Celtics picks.

This has been a thrilling series, to say the least. Though the first two games were a bit one-sided, Games 3 and 4 were just the opposite.

Both contests followed a similar script, with close first halves, strong third quarters from Milwaukee, and big fourth quarters from Boston.

Game 3 was filled with drama in the final minute. Jrue Holiday hit a jumper with 10 seconds remaining to put the Bucks up by three. Holiday fouled Marcus Smart on the ensuing possession, but the refs called the foul on the floor despite the latter's protests that he was in the act of shooting a triple. Smart made his first attempt, purposely missed his second, and grabbed the offensive board. However, he missed the follow-up and Al Horford’s tip-in came just after the buzzer.

Horford then played the hero in Game 4, scoring 16 of his career-high 30 points in the fourth quarter to lead Boston to a win in Milwaukee and tie the series at 2-2.

Teams that win Game 5 in a tied series emerge victorious from the series 82% of the time. 

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday’s NBA matchup between the Bucks and Celtics (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bucks vs. Celtics Game Info

Date: Wednesday, May 11, 7:00 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Bucks vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

Surprisingly, there hasn’t been any movement on the spread or the Over/Under on this game since the lines opened. Boston is favored by 5.5 at home after winning Game 4 and nearly forcing overtime in Game 3.

The O/U is up just slightly from Game 4's. The totals in this series have been 218, 216, 211.5, and 213, but the only time the Over hit was in Game 4. 

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Bucks vs. Celtics Picks

Celtics -5.5 (-110) ?????Under 214.5 (-110) ?????Celtics fourth quarter -5.5 (+230) ?????

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Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions

Celtics -5.5 (-110)

Had Smart gotten a 3-point shooting foul or Horford’s tip-in came before the buzzer at the end of Game 3, Boston could be up 3-1 in the series. The Celtics have been the better team, and the point spread reflects that in Game 5.

Through four games, Boston has held the Bucks' offense to just 99.5 points per contest after Milwaukee averaged a robust 115.5 in the regular season. Boston’s top-ranked defense limited opponents to an NBA-best 104.5 points per game in the regular season, but that elite defense has been even better in the postseason.

The Celtics’ offense has been pretty impressive, as well. Boston holds a considerable advantage in 3-pointers made at 15.3 compared to Milwaukee’s 8.3, and the Celtics have been more efficient from beyond the arc, converting 37.4% of their attempts compared to just 29.2% for the Bucks. Free-throw shooting favors Boston (83.1%) by a significant margin over Milwaukee (73.9%), too.

The Celtics are 18-23-1 against the spread as home favorites, and Milwaukee is 5-10-0 as the road underdog. Boston has covered in seven of eight meetings with Milwaukee this season, including two of three contests as the home favorite. Swarming defense, excellent end-of-game play, and quality 3-point shooting give Boston the edge on Wednesday, and I’m taking them to cover.

Under 214.5 (-110)

As mentioned above, Boston’s defense has limited Milwaukee to under 100 points per game, and the Celtics have only averaged 103.8 points per game in the series. These point totals are far cries from what we saw in the regular season from the Bucks (115.5 PPG) and Celtics (111.8 PPG). 

Milwaukee is without No. 2 option Khris Middleton, and his absence combined with Boston’s excellent defense has forced Giannis Antetokounmpo into inefficient offensive performances thus far. In the regular season, Giannis averaged 29.9 points on 18.6 field-goal attempts, shooting 55.3%. Against Boston, he’s averaging slightly more points at 32 but taking 28.5 shots per game on just 43.9% shooting. It’s the second-lowest shooting percentage of his career in any single playoff series, trailing only his 36.6% shooting in his very first playoff series back in 2015.

You can’t count on the Bucks’ offense suddenly erupting for 120 points. The Celtics are 19-23-0 to the O/U as home favorites, and Milwaukee is 6-9-0 as the away underdog. The point totals in this series have been 190, 195, 204, and 224, and the jump in total is likely an overreaction to Game 4.

These teams hit the Over in four of eight matchups but have done it only once in the playoffs. The defense has been excellent on both sides, and scoring is down as a result. Expect that trend to continue Wednesday.

Celtics fourth quarter -5.5 (+230)

It’s been a massive discrepancy in the fourth quarter in this series, and the Celtics' strong play at the end of games has been key in keeping this one close with Milwaukee. 

In the fourth quarter, Boston has averaged 30.5 points on 53.2% shooting and 47.2% from deep. Conversely, Milwaukee has averaged just 23.5 points on 41.2% shooting and 29.6% from deep. Boston’s depth is a big reason for the late-game success, as evidenced by the top-three fourth-quarter scorers from each team: Al Horford (7.8 points), Jaylen Brown (seven), and Jayson Tatum (6.8) for the Celtics, and Antetokounmpo (7.3), Holiday (4.5), and Pat Connaughton (3.3) for the Bucks.

Boston simply has more gifted scorers to throw at Milwaukee late in games, and without Middleton, the Bucks have lost a significant scoring threat and floor-spacer.

The Celtics have won the fourth quarter by a total of 122-94 overall and 103-71 over the last three games. Milwaukee has been outscored in the fourth quarter by at least six points in each of the last three games, so rather than taking the O/U of 0.5, we’re going to climb all the way up to 5.5 and get plus-money odds.

Where to Bet on Bucks-Celtics Picks

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Bucks-Celtics picks made 5/11/2022 at 10:55 a.m. ET.