Blazers, Grizzlies to go ‘under’ in Game 5 is Your NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 29, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 



Just as in three of the first four games in this first round NBA Playoff series, look for another ‘under’ Wednesday night when the fourth seeded Portland Trail Blazers (52-34, 19-24 away) this time visit the fifth seeded Memphis Grizzlies (58-28, 33-10 home) for Game 5 from FedExForum in Memphis, TN at 9:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the Grizzlies leading the series 3-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 189½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.


Blazers Stayed Alive at Home
The Grizzlies looked to be cruising on their way to the second round of these playoffs as they were the winning NBA picks in the first three games of this series, with the first two wins here in Memphis both staying ‘under’ the posted totals rather easily with scores of 100-86 and 97-82 respectively before winning a shootout in Game 3 in Portland 115-109.

The Trail Blazers did then avoid the sweep by taking Game 4 at home Sunday 99-92, overcoming a horrific third quarter where they made just 5-of-20 field goal attempts by outscoring Memphis 31-17 in the final stanza, erasing a 10-point deficit with a game-ending 29-12 run. Now normally we would be looking at the home team to end the series in Game 5 in situations like this, but the complexion of this series may have changed in Game 3.


Conley a Huge Loss for Grizzlies
You see, even though the Grizzlies had easily their best offensive performance of the series in that Game 3 victory, they also suffered a huge loss that could have bigger ramifications when point guard Mike Conley fractured multiple facial bones. Conley has since undergone surgery and is out indefinitely.

And one weakness for a Memphis team that won 55 games during the regular season is lack of quality depth at point guard. The unheralded Nick Calathes was thrust into a starting role in Game 4, and although he contributed 12 points he had just three assists in the entire contest, a strong indication that the Grizzlies probably would not have had that fourth-quarter meltdown and completed the sweep with a healthy Conley.

The defense did its part limiting Portland to just 41.4 percent shooting, and that unit almost always shows up as the Grizzlies finished second in the NBA in points against during the regular season surrendering a mere 95.1 points per game. Furthermore, if you combine the regular season and playoffs, the Grizzlies are allowing a ridiculously low 92.7 points per game here in Memphis all year!


Can Portland Make History?
Now, you have probably heard a countless amount of times that no team in NBA Playoff history has ever overcome an 0-3 deficit to come back and win the series, and that sensational Memphis defense at home this year may make it unlikely to happen here. Still, there is a slither of hope that Conley’s absence may make it at least possible for the Blazers to make history.

After all, even when healthy the Grizzlies ranked just 20th in the league in scoring this season with 98.3 points per game, so without him Memphis figures to struggle offensively just like Game 4 in Portland, resulting in a fairly tight, low-scoring game. As long as that is the case and Portland can stay within shouting distance, it is not so far-fetched that the Blazers can steal another win late just as they did on Sunday.

Now we are now flat out saying that the Blazers will win this series, or even that the Grizzlies will not end it tonight for that matter. But what we are saying is that we expect this to be a low-scoring game without Conley regardless of who emerges victorious at the end.


Amazing ‘under’ Run in Memphis
And let us not forget that Memphis has been a great ‘under’ team all year as it is now 49-35-2 in all of its games this year combining regular season and playoffs. Most remarkable though is that the ‘under’ is a sensational 24-3 in the Grizzlies’ last 27 games here at the “Grindhouse!”

Look for that amazing ‘under’ run in Memphis to continue when Portland visits the Grizzlies for Game 5 on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Trail Blazers, Grizzlies ‘under’ 189½ (-105)