Betting Trends Signal GS Warriors Will Cover ATS Over Cavaliers in Series Kickoff

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 4, 2015 3:23 PM GMT

Thursday, Jun. 4, 2015 3:23 PM GMT

The NBA Playoffs is almost over, but tonight we'll be covering the Cavaliers vs. Warriors series opener while sharing our NBA picks for this first matchup. Let's take a look at what's waiting for us to win big tonight!

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden St. Warriors (-5.5) 9:00 ET ABC TV
The long awaited 2015 NBA Playoffs commence this evening, Thursday, June 4th at Oracle Arena, when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Golden St. Warriors, who are listed on the NBA odds as the favorites tonight. Game 1 of this best of 7 Championship Series takes place at the Warriors’ Oracle Arena home court, where they are 47-3 SU this season.  These teams split a pair of home court decisions in the regular season with the Warriors winning at Oracle 112-94 on January 9th and Cleveland returning the favor with a 110-99 home court victory on February 25th.  It is no surprise that either of these teams reached the Title Game.  

The Cleveland saga of this NBA season has been told numerous times on these pages. In January, the Cavaliers struggled to a 19-20 SU record with an injury to James, the season-ending injury to Varejao and the trading of Waiters.  With the addition of Mozgov, JR Smith and Shumpert, along with the return of James, the Cleveland chemistry immediately improved.  The Cavaliers enter tonight on a run of 46-11 SU with a record of 12-2 SU in the Playoffs.  That Playoff run was made without the services of No. 3 scorer, Kevin Love and with No. 2 man, Irving, battling still unresolved knee and foot injuries which will leave him at less than 100% for this series.  No surprise that the Cavs have been led by LeBron James, who brings his Playoff line of 28/10/8 to the proceedings.  James has played in 5 consecutive NBA Finals.  He will seek to end Cleveland’s 51 year title drought for their professional teams.  Do not expect the stage to be too big for Cleveland HC Blatt, who led his Maccabi, Tel Aviv team to the 2014 Euro-League Championship. 

Waiting for the Cavs will be a Golden St. team who turned the corner this year with the addition of HC Kerr.  Kerr brings 5 Championship rings, along with his “playing in the moment” philosophy.  It has clearly served the Warriors well with an outstanding 79-18 SU record for the year, including 12-3 in the Playoffs.  The 47-3 SU Oracle Arena record speaks volumes about the way in which the Warriors up-tempo offense feeds off the fan support in the arena.  The Warriors comfortably won their games by a double digit margin on this court this season.  They are led by MVP, Stephen Curry, who has made the most 3-pointers of any player in NBA history in a single season.  In addition, he is ably abetted by splash brother, Klay Thompson, who is 100% following his concussion in the Game 5 victory vs. Houston last Wednesday night.  With Bogut roaming the interior and integral role players filling in the pieces, the Warriors are an explosive offensive team with a vastly underrated defense.  

Each of these teams is well rested for this contest with at least 8 days of rest.  That situation has historically favored any greater than .650 home team, who is an over 70% play, against the greater than .500 road team.  Though the Cleveland recent record of 46-11 SU may belie this stat, their 65-31 SU record for .677 winning percentage is .137 worse than the .814 winning percentage of Golden St.  With a W/L percentage difference of that margin, Game 1 home teams are an over 60% ATS winner in this price range, including over 80% if our home team’s W/L percentage is greater than or equal to .732 and, over 90% if our away team record is over .650.  For the NBA picks, we must back the Warriors in Game 1 on their strong home court, noting that Irving with knee and foot injuries may well continue to be less than 100%!

NBA Pick: Take Golden St. Warriors -5.5 at BetOnline

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