#Betting101: Pounding the Rockets Post-Curry

steph curry rockets

Jason Lake

Tuesday, March 27, 2018 7:53 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2018 7:53 PM UTC

With Stephen Curry on the sidelines indefinitely, the Golden State Warriors have fallen even further back of the Houston Rockets – except on the NBA odds board.

It’s been a lot of fun tank-watching the worst teams in the NBA – and profitable, too. The Atlanta Hawks are 1-3 SU and ATS since we put them under the microscope; they did us a solid last Sunday dropping a 118-99 decision to the Houston Rockets as 13-point road dogs. No doubt there will be more tank-tastic basketball as the regular season draws to a close – but it’s time to switch our attention to the playoffs, and what the Rockets (60-14 SU, 39-34-1 ATS at press time) can do for our NBA picks.

You may recall last month’s award-liquefying article where we recommended the trio of the Rockets (+400), the Toronto Raptors (+2200) and the Utah Jazz (+30000) to win the title. Times have changed; Houston is now +180 on the NBA futures market at 5Dimes, with Toronto at +1200 and Utah at +20000. There’s still plenty of value in all three teams, but Houston looks very, very good right now. And it’s at least in part because of what’s happening to the defending champions.

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Just now seeing the news about Stephen Curry’s left MCL sprain. MRI results come back this afternoon. Looking at the calendar:

~3 weeks: Start of playoffs
~5 weeks: Start of Conf Semis
~7 weeks: Start of Conf Finals
~10 weeks: Start of NBA Finals

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) March 24, 2018
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Most Valuable Patella

These are dark days for the Golden State Warriors (54-19 SU, 31-41-1 ATS). They enjoyed good health through most of their three-year run atop the Western Conference, but this year is different – and it got much worse last week when former two-time MVP Stephen Curry (plus-8.6 BPM) sprained his left MCL. He’s probably out until the second round of the playoffs, if Golden State makes it that far.

That’s a mighty big if. The Warriors could easily end up facing the Jazz in the first round; when they met on Sunday, Utah won 110-91 as 8.5-point road dogs. We went with UNDER 203 instead of the Jazz (the total dipped to 198 before tip-off), but you get the point. Anyway, back to the Rockets: With Golden State in trouble, Houston has a 59 percent chance (!) of winning the title, according to the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight. That works out to –144 using the handy-dandy SBR Betting Odds Converter. Oh my.

These projections are probably selling the Cleveland Cavaliers short, given their proven ability to turn it up during the postseason. But as long as people are still betting on the Warriors (+117) as if nothing’s wrong, Houston will have tons of value on the NBA odds board. Golden State’s title chances have fallen to eight percent according to the projections; that’s +1150 using the Odds Converter. Bet accordingly, and as always, may the sphere be with you.

Free NBA Pick: Rockets +180Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
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