Better Shooting & Passing Makes Heat & 'Under' Our NBA Pick Over Pistons

Darin Zank

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Detroit bombed Miami a month ago, so the Heat seek revenge when they host the Pistons Tuesday night. Don't make a move without reading this article that comes with our NBA pick.

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NBA Picks: Heat -4 & UNDER 194.5 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


The Odds
Most of Tuesday's NBA odds market opened Miami at -3.5 over Detroit, with a total of right around 192. In the early betting many books bumped the Heat to -4, and the total to 194, and more.

Anyone thinking about betting the Pistons to win this game outright could get +160 on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.


The Situation
Detroit (16-12 SU, 16-11 ATS) has won two games in a row, and four of its last five, after outlasting the Bulls in Chicago last Friday 147-144 in quadruple-overtime. The game was tied at 105 after regulation, before the Pistons finally pulled away in the fourth extra period.

On the night Detroit shot 45 percent from the floor, which is respectable, but hit just eight-of-29 shots from 3-point range and just 27-for-46 from the free-throw line.

Last Wednesday the Pistons beat Boston 119-116. Detroit's most recent loss came by a bucket in overtime against the Clippers eight days ago.

Miami (16-10 SU, 12-13 ATS) has also won four of its last five, after coming from behind to beat Portland Sunday 116-109. The Heat trailed by a dozen in the first half, but won the second half by a 64-47 margin, and covered at -5. On the night Miami scorched the nets to the tune of 57 percent from the floor, including a 12-for-23 effort from beyond the arc.

Last Friday the Heat laid an egg in a 108-94 loss at home to Toronto. But just before that they won three in a row, beating Memphis, Atlanta and Brooklyn.


Recent History
This is the second meeting between these teams this season; one month ago Detroit bombed Miami at home 104-81, easily covering at -2. The Pistons led that game by 17 at the half, pushed that to 30 in the third quarter and sailed home from there. On the night Detroit only shot 42 percent from the floor, but hit 16-for-31 from 3-point land, and outrebounded the Heat by a 61-49 margin.

Last season Detroit took two of three meetings with Miami, outscoring the Heat by a 103-99 per-game margin.

Over the last four meetings in this series both teams have shot a combined 46 percent from the floor.

Also, the OVERS are 3-1 in the last four meetings, as those games averaged 198 points, against an average O/U of 189.


Totals Trends
Detroit is 14-14 on the totals this season, as Pistons games have averaged 202 points.

Miami is 18-8 on the UNDERS, as Heat games have averaged just 192 points.


Final Analysis
Miami shoots the ball better than Detroit and plays better defense, and that's good enough for us; we like the Heat, the home team at the short spread, for one of our NBA picks for Tuesday. Also, neither team is all that great from the FT line, and 10-15 missed free-throws might help keep this game UNDER.

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