The NBA Odds for this game were very late coming out this morning, and it is due to the statuses of two very important stars, one on either team. In the video above, I talked about the NBA Odds potential if Paul Millsap misses the game, and it looks as if the sportsbooks are leaning that way. The Warriors are a -9 NBA Odds favorite, with a total of 210.
Millsap is reportedly “close,” to a return according to Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will play tonight. In the video I mentioned that the spread might be close to double figures if Millsap doesn’t play, and it opened at -9.
Millsap’s presence on the court tonight is worth at least one or two points in the spread, but with the Hawks really not wanting to make the playoffs, there is no sense in rushing Millsap back. The Hawks are currently on a six game road trip, and they are three games up on the Pistons for the 8th spot in the playoffs.
While this is simply speculation and Millsap could play tonight, I could just as easily see the Hawks sitting him out for a few more games on this road trip. The Hawks also play tomorrow night, so if Millsap is close to a return, it would be smart to hold him out one more night so he doesn’t have to play in back to back games right when returning from this knee bruise.
Take a look at a comparison of the top NBA Championship Odds
The Sharp Pick
As always, make sure you double check Millsap’s status before game time, but I am guessing he won’t play just one more time. However even if he does suit up, I think the Warriors are the play whichever way it goes. Wait until news on Millsap hits, because I don’t think the spread will go up much if he misses, and it will definitely add value to the Warriors if he suits up.
Stephen Curry is reportedly fine after sitting out most of the second half of the Warriors game against the Celtics, and he will play tonight against the Hawks. With Curry ok, and the Warriors’ dominating size down low if Millsap sits out again, the Hawks are going to be no match for the Warriors’ front line. Even though the Hawks did get Pero Antic back, he, Mike Scott and Elton Brand will be at a disadvantage tonight.
The Hawks are on an incredibly bad losing streak SU, as they have lost 12 of their last 13 games. Now that may not seem like much because it’s SU, but during that same stretch, they are 1-11-1 ATS. If you are still on the Hawks after that streak, I don’t think you should read further.
The Warriors should play well tonight at home, and if Millsap sits, Jeff Teague alone cannot beat or cover versus Curry and the Warriors. The Warriors have won seven of their last ten home games against the Hawks, and four of their last five SU against the Hawks overall. I see them winning by double figures tonight.
My Pick: Warriors -9