Bet Undervalued Nuggets -7 With Your NBA Picks vs. Tired Suns

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, March 10, 2016 6:49 PM GMT

One of the games I have my eye on tonight is the Nuggets playing host to the Suns. The NBA odds have the Nuggets as -7 favorites, with a total of 214.5, so after Phoenix got blown out last night, can they rebound tonight in the Mile High City?

Could Suns Be Knighted Tonight?
After getting their ass kicked last night at home, the Suns had to hop on a plane and travel into Denver, which is probably not an easy trip, especially this late in the season. However, the Suns could get back one of their stars tonight in Brandon Knight, which would really help their chances of getting a cover here on the second night of a back to back.

Knight was dressed and apparently available to play at least limited minutes last night but he did not make his way off the bench. However, that could mean that the Suns were just being overly cautious with their young point guard, considering all they have left to play for this season is Ping-Pong balls. Knight will likely not be in the starting lineup or playing heavy minutes even if he does end up playing tonight, but just know that it’s a possibility.

The Suns have been one of the poorest teams on the second night of a back to back this year, going only 4-7 ATS, and they are also 4-7 cashing the over on the second night of a back to back. This has been a nice trend to follow for the Suns, and coming into this game, they have cashed the under in four straight games on no rest. Besides a big win for them against the Magic on no rest where they scored 102 and limited the Magic to only 84 points, the Suns have really struggled offensively this season on no rest. In their three games on no rest before their most recent one against Orlando, the Suns averaged only 84.6 points per game.

Considering the Nuggets are also without one of their main scorers in Danilo Gallinari, this one could be lower scoring as well. However, while the total is intriguing to me, the spread screams for me to lay the points with Denver with the tired Suns coming into town.

 

The Sharp Pick
Not only have the Suns been bad ATS this season on no rest, but also they have been one of the worst road ATS teams in the league. Phoenix is 9-22 ATS this year when playing on the road, and since all of their injuries hit, it’s been even worse. The Suns are 2-2 ATS in their last four road games, but if you stretch that out a bit more, Phoenix is an incredible 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games. That is about as an automatic fade as you can get, and with the undervalued Nuggets as only -7 favorites on the NBA odds board at some shops, I am laying the points tonight.

Denver is currently on a nice home stand that they have been on since the end of February, and they have covered in three of those last four road games. This season the Nuggets are only 15-17-1 ATS at home, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference home games. With a tired Suns team coming into town, lay the points with your NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Nuggets -7
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle