Warriors limping down stretch
Golden State lost last night at home to the Nuggets 100-99, and after opening as -12 favorites and moving to -13 before the game started last night, this was one of the worst losses of the season for the Warriors. Although it didn’t demote them in the West playoff standings, it did make them vulnerable to possibly drop. This is not something any team above #7 wants to do, because I don’t think anyone wants to play Oklahoma City or San Antonio in the first round.
Tonight, the Warriors get a chance at redeeming themselves on the road against the Lakers. Even though the Warriors are still dealing with some injuries, they are a solid -10 road favorites in the NBA Odds, with a total of 220 points. Although they could blowout the Lakers with ease, that’s what I said about the Nuggets last night. Therefore, I think the spread is a no-go, but instead, the total is looking great.
At 220, and with both teams possibly missing key big men tonight, I think the total is way too high for these two teams. Without Pau Gasol, the Lakers have little to no consistent offense, and even though they are consistently bad on defense, I doubt the Warriors will be able to score big enough to cash the over off the back to back.
The Warriors were without David Lee last night and even though the big man has started doing some on-court work, there has been no word on a return date for him. While there is still a possibility it happens here, I doubt they risk his health against the Lakers.
This makes both offenses handicapped to an extent, and at 220, I think the total is primed for an under bet. Neither one of these teams have been scoring well, and the Warriors are one of, if not the best under cashing team in the NBA this season.
The Sharp Pick
Golden State cashes the under this season at an amazing 45-30-2 on the season, and they are 23-14-1 cashing the under when playing on the road. The under has cashed in both of the most recent games between these two clubs, and for the Warriors, coming off the back to back has also been good for under bettors. Golden State is 9-5 this season cashing the under on no rest.
While this game should be an up and down game, it won’t have a lot of easy baskets for the Lakers. Golden State’s defense is ok at times, but the main thing for the Lakers is simply not having enough capable NBA scorers healthy right now.
With only outside shooters for LA, if the shots are not falling, they could not even reach 100 points tonight. If LA is held to under 100 either by the Warriors or just by not hitting shots, either way the total looks great for under value. The Warriors have had some stinkers recently, and with their backs kind of against the wall, I think they might choke again tonight. Take the under.
My Pick: UNDER 220