The NBA Odds for this game favor the Nets at -2 ½, with a total of 199 ½. After being down 14 points at the end of the first quarter, the Nets stormed back, outscoring the Mavs 76-62 in the final three quarters to send their game last night to OT. However this late in the season, will the elderly Nets be able to beat up on a lowly Pelicans team on no rest?
What if game
The Pelicans are probably the best team to center the ‘what if’ game around, because there are about 15 different moves and injuries that have happened to this team over the last calendar year that make for great NBA talk. From the trade to bring in Jrue Holiday, to the decision to bench Tyreke Evans until about three weeks ago, the Pelicans have been a mess to try and predict this entire season.
Tonight is no different, as they head into this game with another ‘what if’? Eric Gordon missed the Pels’ game Saturday, and there has been zero word out of New Orleans about his status for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, the Pelicans are left with Anthony Davis, and a whole lot of nothing to help him against a solid Nets team. This could really kill their offense, as the Nets are good enough to double Davis and not lose much defensively.
Even with Brooklyn coming off of an overtime game last night, they are still very much a danger to New Orleans. However I think the back to back gives us unique value on a very high total of 199 ½. The first meeting between these two teams a couple of weeks ago finished 81-93 in a very low scoring affair in Brooklyn. I could easily see another game like that in New Orleans tonight, and the under would be excellent value if it is.
The Sharp Pick
If EG does not play in this game, the under is an even better bet. Brooklyn won’t lose their defense on the second night of a back-to-back, but their offense might struggle some playing on no rest. Plus after a win this season, the Nets have cashed the under at 19-15-1.
The Nets are an even 7-7 cashing the total on no rest this season, but as road favorites, they are 8-6-1 cashing the under. In a game like this, the pace will be slow, and 199 ½ is too high for these two teams. Brooklyn ranks 26th in the league in possessions per game, while the Pelicans aren’t much better at 23rd.
Even though their defensive numbers aren’t great this year, the Pelicans should be able to slow down the tired Nets enough to keep them from scoring 100 points tonight. If that’s the case, this total is a great value for our basketball picks, because with all of the injuries for the Pelicans, it is going to be hard for the home team to score more than 90 points. Brooklyn has held it’s last four opponents to under 100 points in regulation, and the offensively challenged Pelicans probably won’t change that tonight.
NBA Pick: UNDER 199 ½