Bet Thunder & Pelicans To Go 'Over' 220 With Your NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, February 25, 2016 7:03 PM GMT

The Thunder were able to start getting back on track last night with a win over the Mavericks, and now they head into New Orleans to try and slow down Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. The NBA Odds have New Orleans as +5 ½ underdogs at home, with a total of 221 ½. 

Home Versus Road
These two teams have been up and down this year at times, and a lot has to do with their home and road splits. For instance, the Thunder have been respectable at home ATS this season at 15-16-1 ATS, and 9-7-1 ATS at home versus teams from their conference. However on the road this season, OKC drops to 8-17 ATS, while only 6-10 ATS on the road against the Western Conference.

The Pelicans haven’t been great ATS against anyone this season, but at the very least they have been respectable at 8-8 ATS at home in conference play. However, the total home/road splits between these two teams are even more telling, and they might give us an edge tonight in betting this game.

These two teams have yet to play one another in New Orleans this season, but they have played twice in OKC. In games when the Pelicans are on the road and the Thunder are at home this season, these two teams have cashed the under a combined 42-18-1. However, switch those positions to where they are tonight with the Pels at home and the Thunder on the road, and they have cashed the over at 34-18. With the pattern emerging for these two teams, and with both playing very little defense this month, the over might once again be a good play for these two teams.

The Pelicans average eight more points per game when playing at home compared to on the road, and the Thunder actually score more points on the road this season than they have at home, which would explain their 21-11 under cashing record at home this season compared to 14-11 cashing the over on the road. If this season’s trends hold true tonight, the over might be a very valuable wager, even sitting at more than 220 points.

 

The Sharp Pick
Before cashing the under against one another earlier this month in OKC, the over was 3-0-1 in these two team’s last four meetings with one another, and the over is 2-0 in their last two meetings against one another in New Orleans. On top of that, the over is 7-1 in the Thunder’s last eight road games, and the over is an outstanding 13-5 in New Orleans’ last 18 home games this season.

The Thunder come into this one with a pace factor of 99.2 which is inside the top ten in the league, and New Orleans is not far behind at the 12th fastest pace in the league at 98.5. With all of the injuries that the Pelicans are going through right now, their only chance of staying with the Thunder tonight and beat the NBA odds is playing fast and hopefully tiring them out after they played a tough game last night. If this is the case, the over should be an outstanding play, because while we think the Pelicans will play fast, it should come at no surprise if the Thunder push the pace as well.

In their last ten games, the Thunder are scoring an average of 113 points per game, while giving up 108 points in those same ten games. The Pelicans haven’t been much better on defense recently, giving up 107 points per in their last ten games, and if we have another low defensive and faster paced game tonight, this should be a very high scoring game, so keep this in mind before placing your NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Over 220
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes