Most sportsbooks have San Antonio favored by 5.5 points for tonight's game. San Antonio has gone only 5-7 against the spread throughout the playoffs, while the Thunder are at 7-5-1 ATS so far.
For those eager to make a total play, the current O/U is at 209.
Oklahoma City Thunder
After surviving through seven games against the upset-minded Grizzlies, the Thunder next had to contend with the Clippers in the conference semis.
Los Angeles gave Oklahoma City all they could handle, but ultimately the star power of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook was too much. The Thunder wrapped up the series in Game 6 at the Staples Center and wound up covering ATS in four of the six matchups.
For Oklahoma City, it's been all about Durant and Wesetbrook.
Durant now has averages of 31.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 4.3 APG while playing 44.5 minutes per game in the postseason, while Westbrook has been good for 26.6 PPG, 8.4 APG and 8.0 RPG. They're both averaging over four turnovers per game, but what do you expect when they dominate the offensive touches like they do?
Unfortunately for the Thunder, they're set to be without their third-best player for the remainder of the playoffs. Serge Ibaka has a calf strain and has been ruled out, which is a huge blow to Oklahoma City's chances of advancing. How will they replace his energy on both ends of the court?
San Antonio Spurs
It appears the Spurs found their stride in their first round series with Dallas, as they had little trouble in getting past Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge and the Trail Blazers in the Western Conference semi-finals.
Though they dropped Game 4 on the road, San Antonio won each of the rest of the matchups by at least 15 points. They went 4-1 ATS in the series, this coming after covering the spread in only one of the seven matchups with Dallas.
Tony Parker's health is worth tracking, but he's apparently good to go for Game 1. He has averages of 19.3 PPG and 4.9 APG so far in the postseason.
Other players in double figures in scoring include Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG), Kawhi Leonard (14.0 PPG and 7.5 RPG) and Manu Ginobili (13.9 PPG), though San Antonio is also getting effective minutes out of the likes of Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli.
Gregg Popovich has these guys playing lights out right now and we can't wait to see if they can keep the train rolling in this first showdown with the Thunder.
Game 1 Pick
Much has been made of Oklahoma City's dominance over San Antonio throughout the regular season. They won all four games both straight up and against the spread, including two victories on the road.
As Miami proved against Brooklyn in the last round, we shouldn't read too much into past meetings, especially with the nature of both teams changing and the stakes rising to a whole different level in the playoffs.
Still, even without Ibaka out there, we feel like there's value in taking the Thunder in this spot. Durant and Westbrook are playing at a crazy high level and we've seen Oklahoma City defy the odds when everyone's counted them out a number of times before. Take the points and back the road team in Game 1.
NBA Pick: Thunder +5.5