Bet Road Favorite Spurs -8 & 'Under' vs. Kings as the NBA Pick

Darin Zank

Monday, November 9, 2015 3:45 PM GMT

Sacramento doesn't have much room for error to begin with, and is now playing without its best player. What chance do the Kings have as home dogs on the NBA odds against San Antonio? 

Betting Odds
Most of Monday's NBA odds market opened San Antonio at -8.5 for this game, with a total of right around 206. In the early action many shops then dropped the hook on the spread.

Anyone interested in betting Sacramento to win this game outright could get +315 on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
San Antonio is 4-2 both SU and ATS on the season, after beating Charlotte Saturday 114-94, covering at -9. The Spurs actually trailed the Hornets by three points early in the third quarter, then outscored Charlotte from there 63-40. On the night San Antonio shot a hot 56 percent from the floor, and hit nine-of-21 shots from 3-point range.

Just before that the Spurs had a three-game winning streak snapped by a 102-99 loss at Washington. So San Antonio is now 2-0 both SU and ATS following a SU defeat this season.

On the homey side of this match-up Sacramento is just 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS, with five losses in a row, following a 103-94 home defeat against Golden State Saturday night. But the Kings held on for the cover as 13-point home dogs. Sacramento rallied to lead the Warriors by a point with six minutes to go in the game, but faded down the stretch, missing out on the upset.

On the night the Kings actually outshot Golden State from the floor 44 percent to 41 percent, as they caught the usually torrid Warriors on a cold night.

Sacramento is now 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS since C DeMarcus Cousins went down with an Achilles injury. The Kings also played without G Darren Collison (hamstring) Saturday.

 

Recent Series
San Antonio has taken 12 of the last 13 meetings with Sacramento, but the Kings have covered five of the last eight in the series. Last year the Spurs took three of four games from Sacramento, losing the first meeting 94-91, then winning the next three by an average score of 110-95.

San Antonio outshot the Kings over those four games combined 47 percent to 45 percent.

Also, the totals split 2-2 on those four games, which averaged 200 total points against an average O/U of 200. How about that?

 

Totals Trends
San Antonio is 3-2-1 on the UNDERS this season, as Spurs games have averaged 194 points.

Sacramento, on the other hand, is 5-1 on the OVERS, as Kings games have averaged 216 points.

 

Final Analysis
San Antonio might not shoot 56 percent tonight, like it did last time out, but should have its way underneath, with Cousins sidelined. So we like the Spurs, playing on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable. Also, Sacramento is averaging 17 points less in four games without Cousins than it did in three games with him. So we're thinking UNDER as the NBA pick.

NBA Picks: Spurs -8 & UNDER 206 at Pinnacle