Bet Over 195 for Bucks vs. Heat

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 2, 2014 3:35 PM GMT

At this point in the season, this is Milwaukee’s NBA Finals. However for the Heat, this game is one they could easily win, but not cover the NBA Odds. Tonight’s game will almost rely on who is in, and who is out.

[gameodds]5/260794/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

MIA-GTD

As it has been for most of the second half of this season, the Miami Heat have several players that are either questionable, or game time decisions. Tonight’s opponent doesn’t make it any easier to handicap the Miami Heat, as the Bucks come in losers of ten of their last 11 games SU, and they are fighting for a different kind of award this offseason.

The NBA Odds have the Heat as -13 ½ favorites in this one, with a total of 195 points, and with the spread being one of the best fades of the day, the total is undervalued. A bet on the over should be the best play for this game, as the Bucks are trying to lose, and the Heat will score no matter who is in the game.

It does leave the possibility of Lebron James resting, but I don’t think it’s close enough to the end of the season for that. Even if he did rest along with Wade, Chris Bosh and company could easily squash the Bucks and score into the 100s, and that’s all we’ll need for a total of 195. The Bucks are giving up a ton of points on the road recently, and even though their recent matchup with Miami was a low scoring affair, this one should be different.

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The Sharp Pick
A few nights ago these two teams faced one another in Milwaukee, and that score went way under the total. The Bucks only scored 67 points, but they held Miami to under 90 as well. Now in Miami, I don’t think that will happen again. Even with that game in their recent averages, in their last ten games, the Bucks are giving up almost 110 points per game.

Milwaukee gives up over 106 points per game on the road this season, and Miami averages scoring right around 105 per game at home, so you have to think they’ll be good for more than 100 tonight.

The over has cashed in 15 of the Bucks last 23 games, and the over is 5-1 in Milwaukee’s last six road games. If Milwaukee has one last good game in their system from this horrific season, it’ll be tonight against the defending champs. However the improvements likely won’t come on the defensive end, especially against a team like the Heat. If Milwaukee can get north of 90 points tonight, I think the over has to be a solid wager.

Even though Miami is currently in an under cashing streak of five straight games, that could be one of the reasons this total is underfunded. This season Milwaukee has the third best record of cashing the over on the road at 23-14, and as a home favorite this year, the Heat are cashing the over at 19-16.

If you look at the Bucks’ recent totals, six of the last seven of them are 206 points or higher, so for a Milwaukee total to be well under 200 points at 195, I am going with the over in my NBA Picks tonight. Even if they rest players, the Heat will score points with a short bench, and more importantly, give them up as well.

NBA Pick: OVER 195