Bet Nets +8 vs. Heat for NBA Picks

Jason Lake

Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:30 AM GMT

The Miami Heat broke their three-game losing streak Monday night. Now they can start a new winning streak by beating the Brooklyn Nets and the NBA lines on Wednesday.

Jason’s record on his early NBA picks for 2013-14, up to March 10 inclusive:

79-61-1 ATS

21-19 Totals

Missed it by that much. The Miami Heat took on the Washington Wizards Monday night, and I was on the Wizards in this one, figuring that center Marcin Gortat would mess up Miami real good. Gortat did indeed have a monster game with 14 points and 18 rebounds, including nine on the offensive glass. Unfortunately, the Wizards (+8 away) also turned the ball over 18 times, giving Miami just enough extra shots to beat the basketball odds in a 99-90 victory.

Next up for the Heat, we’ve got a very interesting matchup on Wednesday (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) with the Brooklyn Nets, who are also coming off a narrow cover against the Toronto Raptors (+3 away) in a 101-97 win. That leaves the Nets at 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games. How long can this go on? The NBA odds board once again has Miami laying eight points at home, with a total of 201.

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Boards of America

The Heat (44-17 SU, 28-31-2 ATS) may have gotten the cover on Monday night, but that doesn’t mean their problems are solved. Washington was winning this game in the middle of the fourth quarter before Dwyane Wade (22.3 PER) got hot, scoring 13 points in the final frame to finish with 22 on the night. The Wizards ended up out-rebounding the Heat 50-33, taking 89 shot attempts to Miami’s 80; besides Gortat, four other Washington players grabbed at least five boards, including point guards John Wall (six) and Andre Miller (five in 15 minutes).

Too bad the Nets (32-30 SU, 33-29 ATS) don’t have a Gortat of their own. Brooklyn is second-last in the NBA this year in rebound rate at 47.0 percent, behind the No. 28 Heat at 47.3 percent. And those are full-season stats; the Nets don’t have center Brook Lopez (25.5 PER) and his 6.9 rebounds per 36 minutes for the rest of the season. They’ll also be without Kevin Garnett (13.2 PER, 11.5 rebounds/36) on Wednesday as he continues to recover from a sore back.

Help is on the way. Andrei Kirilenko (13.7 PER, 6.5 boards/36) is traveling with the team to Miami after missing Monday’s game with a sprained ankle. He’s still listed as questionable to face the Heat, but any minutes AK-47 could give Brooklyn in support of Mason Plumlee (17.6 PER, 8.2 rebounds/36) and Andray Blatche (19.7 PER, 9.0 rebounds/36) would be most welcome.

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The Nets might not rebound much, but we’ve already seen Brooklyn beat Miami twice this year SU and ATS, both times at the Rust Bucket. And yes, the Nets won the battle on the boards in each contest. On Nov. 1, in a rare game with both lineups at full capacity, Brooklyn (+4) out-rebounded Miami 40-30 en route to a 101-100 victory. With both teams shorthanded on Jan. 10, the Nets (+5) did it again, winning 49-39 on the glass and 104-95 on the scoresheet in overtime.

What can Miami do differently this time? Not much. The only X-Factor the Heat have in this matchup is Greg Oden (14.3 PER, 9.3 rebounds/36), who didn’t play on Monday in the second of back-to-back games. But Oden hardly gets any minutes when he does play. Otherwise, it’s up to the Big Three to do their thing and make up for Miami’s deficiencies. That’s what they did on Monday against Washington, each providing at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists. They could certainly do the same thing on Wednesday. I’m just not willing to bet on it.

NBA Pick: Take the Nets +8 at SportsBetting