Miami is alternating wins and losses so far this season, and lost last time out. Should we play the Heat to bounce back against the NBA odds Thursday night in Minnesota with our picks?
Heat-Timberwolves Betting Odds
Most of Thursday's NBA odds market opened Miami as a three-point road favorite over Minnesota, while the total opened at anywhere from 198 to 201. In the early betting most of the market bumped the Heat to -3.5, while the total dropped to 196.
Also, the Timberwolves were getting +160 to win this game straight up on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.
Miami, off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 47, is 2-2, after losing at home to Atlanta Tuesday night 98-92. The Heat trailed the Hawks by 14 after three quarters, pulled to within four points with a 10-0 run, but faded from there. On the night Miami shot 44 percent from the floor, just five-for-28 from 3-point land, and committed 19 turnovers.
Sunday night the Heat beat Houston 109-89, shooting 49 percent from the floor, outscoring the Rockets in the second half 65-26. But just before that they lost at Cleveland 102-92. So Miami seems to be running hot/cold at the moment.
Minnesota began this season with a wins O/U of just 27, but is off to a 2-1 start. The Timberwolves opened last week with a 112-111 victory at the Lakers, then won at Denver 95-78. Minnesota then opened the home portion of its slate with a 106-101 loss to Portland Monday night.
The T'Wolves jumped out to a 17-point first-quarter lead on the Blazers, but went into halftime tied at 53. They later trailed by 10, got back to within two points late, but missed on a couple of chances to tie, and fell.
On the night Minnesota only shot 43 percent from the floor, while allowing Portland to shoot 46 percent.
Heat-T'Wolves By the Numbers
So far this young NBA season Miami is shooting 46 percent from the floor, while holding opponents to 42 percent. Minnesota, meanwhile, is shooting 44 percent, and holding foes to just 38 percent.
Miami is 3-1 on the UNDERS, as Heat games have averaged 195 total points.
Minnesota is 2-1 on the OVERS, as Wolves games have averaged 201 points.
Heat-T'Wolves Recent Series
These teams split two meetings last season, both teams winning on their home courts. Miami beat Minnesota 102-92, covering as an eight-point favorite, then lost up in Minneapolis 102-101 but covered as a two-point dog.
The Heat outshot the Timberwolves in those two games combined 51 percent to 45 percent.
Also, the totals split on those two games, as one played UNDER 205 while the other played OVER 189.
Miami has alternated wins and losses so far this season, and if that form holds it should win tonight. The Heat are shooting the ball better than Minnesota, and doing a better job on the boards. So we like Miami in this spot with our NBA picks, as the better team at a manageable spread. Also, both these teams are hitting their free-throws at a pretty good rate, and with help from some FT time near the end this game should go OVER.