Bet Dallas -7 vs. Knicks in your NBA Picks

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, January 5, 2014 3:36 PM GMT

The Mavericks host the Knicks on Sunday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas with a 7:35 PM ET start time. Let's take a look at the NBA odds to find the value for this non-conference affair.

According to NBA betting odds Dallas is a 7.0 point home favorite and the posted total is 202.0. The home team has covered the last 5-games between these two teams. Dallas is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games versus New York. These teams have seen 6 of their last 8 meetings go over the total.

The Standings

The Knicks are currently last in the 5-team Atlantic Division with a record of 10-22. The good news is they’re only 6.5 games behind the first place Toronto Raptors, and just 2.5 behind the 2nd place Boston Celtics. New York enters today 13th overall in the Eastern Conference.

The Dallas Mavericks enter tonight’s contest 3rd in the Southwest Division. They’re 6.5 games behind the 1st place San Antonio Spurs, and 2.0 behind the 2nd place Houston Rockets. Dallas is 8th overall in the Western Conference.

The Underachieving Knickerbockers

The Knicks have been arguably the most disappointing team in the NBA thus far in the season. However, they do come off 2 strong performances in their last 2-games. They upset the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday as an 11.5 point underdog, and then lost a narrow 102-100 decision at Houston on Friday as an identical 11.5 point underdog. In the loss versus Houston, the Knicks squandered an 8-point lead entering the 4th quarter. A very positive sign for New York was the play of Iman Shumpert in the last 2-games. Shumpert who averages just 7.4 points per game this season, scored 27 in the win over San Antonio, and 26 in the loss to Houston.

Starting to Click Offensively

The Knicks enter tonight just 25th in the NBA averaging 95.2 points per game. However, they’ve scored 100-points or more in their last 3, and 7 of their last 10-games. Another positive was the 17 offensive rebounds in their previous game versus Houston. The Knicks are next to last in the NBA in that category. The irony is that that performance came versus the 7th best (Houston) defensive rebounding team in the league.

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Holding on to the Lead

Despite their 19-14 record thus far the Mavericks have had a bad habit of squandering double-digit leads this season, and either barely hanging on to win, or like in their previous games ending up on the wrong end of the score. In that previous game, Dallas gave away a 13-point lead, and lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 119-112. What was even more disturbing was the fact that star point guard Chris Paul of the Clippers had to leave the game midway through the 4th quarter with a separated shoulder. Dallas couldn’t take advantage of that mishap and was outscored 52-42 in the 2nd half.

Weird Sequence for the Mavericks

After starting the season by winning 11 of their first 13 home games, the Mavericks have now lost their last 3 at the American Airlines Center. Contrarily they started the year by losing 9 of their first 13 road games, and have seen won 4 in a row in that role. They’ve also gone over the total in their last 5 at home, and gone under the total in their last 3 on the road. This will be the 2nd of a 3-game in 5-day home stand for Dallas.

NBA Betting System

Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has a winning record on the season, versus an opponent that has lost 5 or 6 of their last 7-games, and that opponent has a winning percentage between .250 to .450, has gone 89-47 ATS (65.4%) since the beginning of the 2009-2010 year. Those stats help us take Dallas' side for our NBA pick.

Free Pick: Dallas -7.0 over New York

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