Bet 76ers +14 When they Face Mavericks Tonight

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 13, 2014 2:09 PM GMT

The Philadelphia 76ers aren’t even pretending that they’re serious about winning basketball games this season. Maybe so, but we don’t like those chalky NBA odds for Thursday’s matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.

 

Jason’s record as of Nov. 12: 5-3 ATS

Profit: plus-4.58 units
 

Tanking the entire 2013-14 NBA season was one thing. It seems like half the Eastern Conference was in on the scam, wilfully gutting their rosters and losing as many games as possible, in order to grab one of the many premium prospects at the 2014 Draft. But the Philadelphia 76ers aren’t satisfied. They’re going for the double-dip. Philadelphia has lost all of its first seven games at 3-4 ATS, and the losing is likely to continue Thursday night (8:30 p.m. ET) when the Sixers visit the Dallas Mavericks.

How likely? The NBA Odds for this game opened at Dallas –15, although that seems to have been a bit strong for the betting public. The spread sits at 13.5 points as we go to press; it’s too early for consensus data, but by the time you read this, we should be able to confirm whether there was some light action on Philadelphia. That is quite a lot of points, after all.

 

So Bad, They’re Good
Let’s take you back to last year for a moment. We knew – everybody knew – that the Sixers was going to punt the season. Then they went and upset the defending champion Miami Heat (–10 away) in the opener. Philadelphia ended up winning its first three games, but then Tank Mode was activated, and the Sixers were 8-19 SU and 11-16 ATS by mid-December.

Things continued to unravel from there, as Philadelphia would lose 26 straight games at one point to tie the league record. But eventually, the NBA odds got way too chalky, and the Sixers became a money-making machine, ending the year on a 12-4 ATS run. They picked up a ton of betting value at the trade deadline when they got rid of Spencer Hawes (minus-1.85 RPM last year), Lavoy Allen (minus-1.05 RPM) and Evan Turner (minus-2.79 RPM) in what seemed like a brazen attempt to hit rock bottom.

And it was. But the Sixers may have actually gotten better. Henry Sims (minus-1.36 RPM) was an improvement over Hawes, mostly because of his work on the defensive end. And while Hollis Thompson (minus-3.68 RPM) was a swinging door on defense, at least he hit 40.1 percent from behind the arc. Turner was 28.8 percent. This is how role players can beat the basketball odds when they replace the bigger names on the roster.

 

No, No, No
Then the Sixers signed up for another year of tanking. They drafted Joel Embiid, who probably won’t play this year because of a foot injury, and traded for the rights to Dario Saric, who’s playing in Europe. Philadelphia also shipped out Thaddeus Young (plus-1.70 RPM) as part of the Kevin Love trade, and got back Luc Mbah a Moute (minus-0.56 RPM) and Alexey Shved (minus-0.70 RPM) from Minnesota.

Not exactly Moses Malone and Julius Erving. The 2014-15 Sixers are still a very bad team, but they have their charms. Tony Wroten (20.6 PER) is playing like an All-Star. Brandon Davies (16.0 PER) is hitting 61 percent of his 2-pointers. And we’ve already seen Noel (plus-3.2 DBPM) and K.J. McDaniels (plus-0.4 DBPM) make some eye-catching blocks on defense.

The Mavericks (5-3 SU and ATS) are obviously the better team here for your NBA Picks, but we think Philadelphia isn’t nearly as sucktastic as the NBA's betting market has been led to believe. The Sixers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, and 2-1 ATS in games where they get at least 10 points. Dallas is 1-2 ATS when giving up at least eight points. We’re going to have to give extra weight to the betting line value Philly bring to the table in this matchup. It’s just too good to ignore.

Visit our NBA Betting Forum and share your thoughts on this and more NBA action. 

 

The Five Stars
Depth/Travel/Rest: DAL
Defense: DAL
Coaching: DAL
Market Bias: PHI
Betting Line Value: PHI x3

Verdict: 1-star pick on PHI

Free NFL PickBet 1.4 units on the 76ers +14 at BetDSI

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