This handicapper breaks down the betting odds for NBA & NCAA Basketball, offering free picks & opinions if the betting public was correct. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (398-347 L138D)
Heat vs. Magic 7:05 ET SUN, FS-FL
The NBA odds total from the sportsbooks were sent out on this Southeast Division tilt and basketball bettors swiftly made their feeling known about what team from the Sunshine State was going to control the tempo. The actual total was lifted two points to 198.5, which certainly would appear to favor Miami who is on a 5-0 OVER run and 7-1 past the number in their last eight outings. Orlando has gone the other way at 5-1 UNDER and 7-2 below the final number since the end of January. One other factor playing into this conflict, seven of the last 10 meetings have also gone OVER.
NBA Pick – Lean Over
Grizzlies vs. Kings 10:05 ET SPSO, CSN-CA
So much for Memphis getting off to sluggish start after the break with road wins at Portland and the L.A. Clippers and they go for the trifecta at Sacramento tonight. The Grizzlies of late have returned to their former style, playing strong defense and limiting their last six opponents to 91.3 points per game while scoring 92.5 PPG themselves. However, those placing NBA picks have Memphis making more buckets in Sac-Town and have taken the total from 197.5 to 199.5. The Sacramento defense has a lot to do with this, ranked 27th in points allowed (104.6) and they have been even worse in their past four games in surrendering 110.5 PPG. A case can be made for a higher total, but the Grizz are 15-5 UNDER on the road off two away games, which leaves me thinking the other way.
NBA Pick – Lean Under
St. Joseph's vs. Massachusetts 7:00 ET SNY
Both these A-10 teams are floundering, which has particularly costly to Massachusetts, whose road losses at Rhode Island and VCU have knocked them down fifth place in the standings. St. Joe’s has been no prize either, losers of three in a row and holding just a 5-9 league record. In spite of UMass having a 9-3 and 8-3 ATS home record compared to the Hawks 2-12 and 5-8 ATS away marks, the visitor has slid from +7.5 to +6. In spite of the fine home record, the Minutemen point differential at home is only + 4.5 per game, which could be reason enough to lower the number.
College Basketball Pick – Slight lean Massachusetts
Southern Illinois vs. Illinois State 8:00 ET ESPN3.com
It is Senior Night for Illinois State and they have a revenge spot to also have them play with more emotion, having lost to Southern Illinois 65-59 as 5.5-point road favorites 18 days ago. That has been the Salukias only victory in nine contests yet the betting odds have gone in their favor, down from +11 to +9.5. The Redbirds offense has been inconsistent of late, averaging 62.4 PPG, compared to season average which is 6.5 points higher and they had failed to cover their past three double digit roles. SIU might only be 3-10 ATS after being an underdog in NCAA Basketball odds, but score differential in those affairs is only -1.4 PPG.
College Basketball Pick – Slight lean Illinois State
Oregon vs. California 11:00 ET ESPNU
Whether it is college basketball handicappers or sharp money bettors, something other than the public has influenced Oregon to go from -1.5 to +1 at California. Over 85 percent of wagers placed are on the Beavers, who have won eight of 10 Pac-12 confrontations (6-4 ATS). This has been accomplished by caring for the ball and Oregon is 7-0 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers the last two seasons. After winning five consecutive times, Cal has dumped the last two and is 0-7 ATS after a conference away defeat. Somebody looking at these numbers feels confident the Golden Bears move to 14-3 SU at home against the Ducks.
College Basketball Pick – Lean Oregon
Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends
NBA ATS Trend: Dallas is 2-12 ATS in NBA odds revenging a loss of three points or less the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend: Philadelphia is 11-0 UNDER after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game this season.
CBB ATS Trend: Davidson is 10-0 ATS in a road game when the total is 140 to 149.5 the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend: Anaheim is 20-8 after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.