Best NBA Pick For Today: Take Our Prime Winning Selection

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, February 7, 2016 3:15 PM GMT

Now here we are on Super Bowl Sunday, where the NBA is squeezing in four afternoon games, and with late NBA odds coming out and matinee hoops, there is surely value.

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NBA Pick: UNDER 195
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Due to some late odds coming out for this slate, I am only releasing my loan NBA best bet for this slate, and I can assure you it’s good enough to begin your Super Sunday on a high note.  

 

Clippers vs. Heat
The “late,” game on this afternoon tips off at just after 2:00 PM Eastern time, and it’s the Clippers heading into Miami to play the Heat. By all accounts this one should be the best game of the afternoon, and the NBA Odds makers agree, putting the Heat as -1 favorites in this one, with a total of 195½. While the spread is inviting, with such a close number, things could go either way in this one, however, the total is more inviting than the spread for several reasons, and that’s where I’m going to find value in this early afternoon game.

While the margin has caught up some compared to earlier in the season, afternoon games on the weekends tend to trend under. NBA players aren’t used to getting up and playing an early afternoon game, and this game might be no different. We already know that the Heat have been stellar at cashing the under at home, but both of these teams have been great at cashing the under in non-conference games. Combined this season they are 25-15-1 cashing the under in inter-conference games, and on top of that, the under has cashed in four of the last six games for the Clippers, and in eight of the last 11 overall for the Heat.

The under is also 4-1 in the Heat’s last five home games, and on top of that the Clippers have cashed the under in four of their last five road games as well. Their last two matchups, one about three weeks ago and one a little more than a year ago both went under the total, and both had slightly bigger totals than the one we have in front of us right now after the line was bet down so much. Either way though, with the Heat getting back Hassan Whiteside recently, and with getting healthier altogether, their defense should bring it this afternoon, and on top that their pace and the matinee start should lead to the under.

Obviously good defense plays a role in this, especially for LA. If you take away their puzzling loss to the Wolves after having three nights off, the Clippers’ defense has been great in four of their last five games. In those four games, LA is giving up only 91 points per game, and if they bring that defense with them to Miami, the under is going to cash.

Even after sliding down a full five points from where it opened, since this is an early afternoon game, the number should be safe even if these teams both creep into the mid 90s. Miami is giving up only 95 points per game this season at home, and against Eastern Conference opponents, the Clippers are giving up only 96. Look for a final score of about that here this afternoon. Take Under as the NBA pick.