We crushed the book with our first two team prop picks for the NBA Finals, and now after a few days off, Game 2 is here. Should we back some more Warriors props.
Cavaliers O/U 101 points
We cashed easily on the Cavaliers and their team total in Game 1 of this series, and after a fast start in the first quarter, the Warriors defense started locking down the Cavs at almost every turn. Even with the Warriors’ two best players having their worst games of the playoffs, the Cavs could still not overcome and only scored 89 points, and only 40 of those points came in the second and fourth quarters.
With how well the Warriors defense played last season in the NBA Finals, I see them holding the Cavs to under 100 once again here in Game 2. The Cavaliers offense has been pretty amazing, but it has been amazing against inferior opponents, and at home. If you take away some of their blowouts against lesser Eastern teams like the Hawks in Game 3 of that series, or the clinching game against the Raptors, the Cavaliers are only scoring about 98 or 99 points per game on the road in the playoffs. That is more of what I expect in Game 2.
The Cavs and Warriors played at a pretty slow pace in Game 1. At only 89.5 possessions per 48 minutes, it’s going to be hard for the Cavs to score enough points against this team. The Dubs have a Defensive Rating in the playoffs of 104.8, which means that the Cavs would need close to 100 possessions to cash the over in their team total. I doubt the Warriors are going to allow them to do that. Considering the Cavs only scored an average of one points per possession in Game 1, I don’t expect them to have much more success, especially if the Warriors get their star players going.
NBA Pick: UNDER 101 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365
Alternate Point Spread
A wise philosopher once said; if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I have used this term many times to describe some of my prop betting picks, and after what I saw in Game 1, I am jumping right back on the Warriors in Game 2’s alternate point spread. I only moved the line up a half point in Game 1, and I am doing the same thing here in Game 2 at -7 (+100) on the NBA odds board. Obviously you can take a little more risk at move them up all the way to -14 if you want, which has odds of nearly 3/1, but for a safer play, -7 seems rip for the picking.
We all saw Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson play poorly in Game 1, and that is likely going to change here in Game 2. As is Shaun Livingston’s play as well, but even if they Warriors get half of the bench points they got in Game 2, they are going to win this game by double figures again if the two Golden State stars have better games.
The Warriors are simply too deep and talented on both ends of the court for the Cavs team. If one member of the Cavs has a bad game, they are going to lose. I mentioned this before the series started, and it came true during the game, but the Cavs need to play perfect if they want to win. All three member of the Cavs; big three shot a combined 38 percent. Even if they do shoot better, it will all be negated if the Warriors play better in Game 2. Lay the points with the alternate point spread with the Warriors for your NBA pick.
NBA Pick: Warriors -7 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle