Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: Expert Picks & Predictions for March 12
It's a jam-packed NBA slate tonight, with some of the league's biggest teams squaring off in the nine-game schedule. This includes a potential NBA Finals preview between the two NBA championship odds favorites, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.
We're targeting an Under for a superstar in that game, but that's just one of our best NBA player props tonight, which stretch from the early games right into the late-night showdown between the New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers.
💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 12
Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
- Quentin Grimes player prop pick: Under 4.5 assists (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Scottie Barnes player prop pick: Under 22.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jayson Tatum player prop pick: Under 3.5 3-pointers (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Anfernee Simons player prop pick: Under 24.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
🤕 Key NBA injuries tonight
- Hawks: Trae Young (probable)
- Celtics: Jayson Tatum (questionable), Jaylen Brown (probable), Kristaps Porzingis (questionable)
- 76ers: Tyrese Maxey (out), Paul George (out), Andre Drummond (questionable), Kelly Oubre (questionable)
- Raptors: Scottie Barnes (questionable), Immanuel Quickley (out), RJ Barrett (out)
- Clippers: Kawhi Leonard (out)
- Rockets: Fred VanVleet (probable)
- Jazz: Jordan Clarkson (questionable), Lauri Markkanen (questionable)
- Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr. (out), Zach Edey (questionable)
- Mavericks: P.J. Washington (questionable)
- Spurs: Devin Vassell (questionable)
- Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert (questionable)
- Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (probable), Jamal Murray (probable), Aaron Gordon (doubtful)
- Trail Blazers: Jerami Grant (doubtful)
🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.
🏀 Quentin Grimes (76ers) Under 4.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +105 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $10.50)
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We start our best NBA player props today with two bets from a game that neither team wants to win. The Philadelphia 76ers (22-42) and Toronto Raptors (22-43) are battling to see who can slide further down the standings, but it's the road team that's been better at losing lately.
Grimes has done his best to carry the load for the 76ers, especially as his teammates sit on the sidelines. Those absences are a big reason why Grimes has put up some truly absurd numbers, but with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and other starters still out for tonight's game, it's bound to catch up with Grimes.
We see that with his assists projection tonight, which sits at 3.1 A big reason why it's so low compared to this total is because he's also expected to log far fewer minutes than he has recently. Grimes has played at least 38 minutes in three of his last five, but he's projected for just a hair over 30 tonight.
We're getting a ton of value on these plus-money odds, so be sure to bet them before bet365 adjusts to match the rest of our best NBA betting sites.
📊 Quentin Grimes player prop odds vs. Raptors
🏀 Scottie Barnes (Raptors) Under 22.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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We have a second Under from this likely very sad contest, and, unlike Grimes, Barnes isn't playing especially well lately. He hasn't gone Over this points total in any of his last five games, and his minutes continue to dwindle as the Raptors manage his workload during a lost season.
Barnes has played more than 30 minutes just once in his last five games, and that's also the game in which he came the closest to clearing this total. He isn't shooting the ball well, and when you combine that with potentially limited playing time, a projection of just 18 points makes perfect sense.
The break-even point on this Under is -315, which tells us it's the total that's off. This probably should be trading at 20.5, and you could even make an argument for 19.5 based on Barnes' recent play. I'm not sure what our best sports betting sites are thinking, but take advantage of this mistake.
📊 Scottie Barnes player prop odds vs. 76ers
🏀 Jayson Tatum (Celtics) Under 3.5 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +140 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $14)
Now we come to the night's main event: Thunder vs. Celtics. Could this be an NBA Finals preview? Well, if it is, Tatum will hope to outperform his projections.
The star forward is projected to go Under essentially all of his player props today: points, assists, and, my favorite, 3-pointers made. This is my choice because not only does it offer us the biggest edge, but it's also a big plus-money bet.
Tatum is projected for just 3.3 made 3-pointers tonight, which might sound dangerously close to the four he'd need to clear this total. However, based on that projection, we're getting better than 40% +EV on this bet. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trades in sports betting, offers Under 3.5 at -103. The next-best price at any of our best sports betting apps after these +140 odds is +118.
So, I guess we should just say thank you to bet365 and move on to our next NBA player prop bet.
📊 Jayson Tatum player prop odds vs. Thunder
🏀 Anfernee Simons (Trail Blazers) Under 24.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8.33)
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We close out the night with a battle between a playoff contender and a tanking team, so, naturally, we have an Under for a player on the latter.
My only worry with this bet is I'm not sure Simons knows the Trail Blazers want to lose, as he's scored at least 30 points in four of his last five. However, he isn't expected to be quite as dominant tonight against the Knicks.
Simons is still projected to have a solid outing at 20.6 points, but that's a far cry from the 25 he'd need to clear this total. The break-even point on this Under based on that projection is -254, which tells us this total is likely a couple of points too high.
It's already down to 23.5 at some of our best sportsbooks, and we could see it close at 22.5. Make sure you get in before that happens.
📊 Anfernee Simons player prop odds vs. Knicks
🗠 NBA betting trends today
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.
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