Bear Essentials: Take ‘Under’ For Warriors-Grizzlies

Tuesday, March 26, 2019 11:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 26, 2019 11:33 PM UTC

The ‘under’ is on an 11-1 run for the Golden State Warriors, but Wednesday’s NBA pick is all about who won’t be playing for the Memphis Grizzlies.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 25:
22-21-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 31-14 Totals

Golden State (50-23 SU, 30-42-1 ATS) at Memphis (30-44 SU, 35-39 ATS)

Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Free NBA Pick: Under
Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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It’s tough being the Memphis Grizzlies. They were born into a no-win situation in Vancouver, then kidnapped and taken to the No. 51-ranked television market in the United States – right between New Orleans and Buffalo, who lost their NBA franchises 40 years ago. The Grizzlies had some moments earlier this decade with Marc Gasol at center and Mike Conley at point guard, but that’s all over now – Gasol was shipped to the Toronto Raptors at the trade deadline.

The Grizzlies might not even have Conley for Wednesday’s game against the Golden State Warriors. He’s one of seven Memphis players (!) on the injured list, and one of four players considered day-to-day; it looks like we might not get any NBA odds for this matchup until Conley’s status becomes clear, but given the circumstances, we’re putting out an early recommendation for the ‘under.’

Grind Those Bones

Conley (plus-4.7 OBPM, minus-1.2 DBPM) is one of the more gifted offensive players in the league, but aside from a nice run in his mid-20s, defense has never been his strong suit. He’s missed two of the past three games with a sore left thigh, and wasn’t at his best in the game he did play: Saturday’s 112-99 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 217.5).

That happened to be the only game of the last six that’s gone ‘under’ for the Grizzlies. But they still have the ‘under’ at 41-32-1 on the season, and with so many people on the injured list, it might be hard for Memphis to cobble together a team for Wednesday. Here are the other three players listed as day-to-day:

  • Avery Bradley (plus-0.6 OBPM, minus-2.0 DBPM)
  • C.J. Miles (minus-1.3 OBPM, minus-1.5 DBPM)
  • Joakim Noah (minus-1.8 OBPM, plus-3.6 DBPM)


Miles is expected to miss the rest of the year with a stress reaction in his left foot, Noah has been ruled out for Wednesday with a sore right knee, and Bradley is iffy at best with a right shin contusion. Taking Noah out of the equation doesn’t help us with the ‘under,’ but it’s good to know that Jonas Valanciunas (minus-0.5 OBPM, plus-1.8 DBPM) and Ivan Rabb (minus-0.6 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM) are there to soak up those minutes at center.

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Jonas Valanciunas has fit right in with the grit & grind mentality ✊ #Grizzlies #GrindCity pic.twitter.com/29L0kFR15Q

— Grizzlies Nation (@GrizNationCP) 26 de março de 2019
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As for the Warriors, Kevon Looney (plus-1.8 OBPM, plus-1.7 DBPM) is day-to-day with a right forearm contusion, but he doesn’t seem too badly hurt. This isn’t a back-to-back matchup for either team, which also doesn’t help our cause, but the ‘under’ is 11-1 in the last 12 Golden State games, so let’s stay the course for Wednesday’s NBA picks, and hope that Conley and Bradley get another day off.

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