Battle Of Wounded Knee: Take ‘Under’ For Mavs-Spurs

Monday, March 11, 2019 7:43 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 11, 2019 7:43 PM UTC

With Luka Doncic questionable to play, Tuesday’s game between the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs looks like an ‘under’ for our NBA picks.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 11: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 26-11 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Dallas (27-39 SU, 37-28-1 ATS) at San Antonio (38-29 SU, 36-30-1 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Under</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BetOnline" target="_blank">BetOnline</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568859, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,169,238,1275], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>It was fun while it lasted. The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most profitable teams on the <a href="">NBA odds board</a>, outperforming expectations with super-rookie Luka Doncic (plus-3.9 BPM) already playing at an All-Star level. But Doncic might not perform at all Tuesday when the Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs; he’s listed as questionable after hurting his left knee during Sunday’s 94-93 loss to the Houston Rockets (–8.5 away).<br /><br />Which puts us in a bind here at the ranch. There are no odds available for Tuesday’s matchup at press time, but whether or not Doncic plays, the ‘under’ might belong in your <a href="">NBA picks</a>. Stand by for action!</p><p> </p><h2><strong>He Lives Upstairs From You</strong></h2><p>Doncic (plus-3.0 OBPM, plus-0.9 DBPM) has been an absolute godsend for the Mavericks, who wisely traded up with the Atlanta Hawks to grab the Slovenian sensation at No. 3 in last year’s draft. He leads the team in scoring at 23.5 points per 36 minutes, chipping in 8.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.2 steals – making Doncic a virtual lock for Rookie of the Year honors, even if he’s already got three full seasons at Real Madrid under his belt.<br /><br />Despite Doncic working his magic, Dallas have the ‘under’ at 36-29-1 this year, including four of their last six games. And while Doncic is a solid defender, his absence would clearly do more damage to the Mavs offense. Should Doncic suit up Tuesday, well, he was clearly hobbled while playing through that knee injury on Sunday. Six of one, half a dozen the other.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Gay Apparel</strong></h2><p>Meanwhile, you’ve got the Spurs, who have the ‘over’ at 39-27-1 thus far. Don’t panic: At home, the ‘under’ is ahead at 17-16, and overall, San Antonio have cashed in the ‘under’ five times during their last six games. The only blemish was Sunday’s 121-114 win over the Milwaukee Bucks (Over 229).<br /><br />But here’s yet another angle. Rudy Gay (plus-0.9 OBPM, plus-0.6 DBPM) missed Sunday’s game with an undisclosed illness, and will presumably be ready for Tuesday; with Gay on the shelf, Marco Belinelli (plus-1.2 OBPM, minus-2.6 DBPM) got some extra burn and scored 16 points against Milwaukee, including 4-of-8 from downtown. Bryn Forbes (plus-0.6 OBPM, minus-2.0 DBPM) also chipped in 12 points on one of his busier days.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Rudy Gay is 4th in DRPM among all Small Forwards in the NBA.&lt;br /&gt;He’s also averaging 14ppg/6rpg/2apg on career high shooting percentages of 51/42/85. Career year. What a comeback just a little over a year removed from rehabbing an Achilles tear.&lt;/p&gt;— Joey Wilkinson ♱ (@AssassinateHate) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 6, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />For our purposes, any minutes the Spurs give to Gay instead of Belinelli and Forbes would be most welcome. You know the drill: See who comes out for the morning shoot-around, get the best price you can find on the board, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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