NBA Same Game Parlays Season Review: What If We Placed Straight Bets on Every Leg in the Same Game Parlays?

Jon Metler takes a deep dive into his record for NBA same-game parlays from this past season and highlights ways in which we can improve.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: June 28, 2023 12:04 PM EDT • 6 minute read

Those of you who have been following my NBA betting exploits this season know that I spent a lot of time grinding out same-game parlays in the name of content. The goal: to review my results at the end of the season and use that experience to outline the risks associated with same-game parlays. But the results didn't quite align with my original plan – and I explain why in great detail here.

When I was young, my basketball coach emphasized that you don't really learn anything after a 30-point win. But you definitely learn something following a 30-point loss.

This is a good lead-in to the results of my NBA same-game parlay analysis, which I had been looking forward to ever since I agreed to write about SGPs for Sportsbook Review. I've always held a strong aversion to parlays, and especially same-game parlays, while being a staunch proponent of straight bets.

I like winning, and SGPs are generally not winning bets. And I saw making and writing about regular SGP bets as an opportunity to track my results. I'd then write an article that would educate people based on an obvious conclusion: Straight bets are a far better option (even without considering the high hold percentage sportsbooks slap on their pre-fabricated SGPs).

Imagine my surprise when I actually lost more units on the straight bets that composed each of the same-game parlays than on the parlays themselves

NBA SGP Season Review

*The units for the straight bets were all calculated as if we hadn't laid the juice upfront, and they were considered as 1 unit bets.

Bet Type	Record	Units
Same Game Parlay	32-115	-27.62 Units
Straight Bets	254-183	-42.72 Units

Context: I used FanDuel for all 147 of my same-game parlays, which were comprised of up to 437 total straight bets.

Initial reaction

As you might imagine, I was completely stunned.

While I was aware that the same-game parlays held a negative unit count for the season (thanks to my bet tracker), what I didn't anticipate was that the straight bets used to build those SGPs actually incurred even greater losses – more than 50%, in fact.

By comparison (and so that you don't think I'm actually terrible at this), all of the non-SGP straight bets I discussed here at Sportsbook Review and shared on my Twitter account finished with a record of 191-159, resulting in a season total of +37.12 units.

I had assumed that I included a sufficient number of my "preferred" straight bets into the same-game parlays, which contributed to my units won throughout the season on the NBA best bets. But it's clear that wasn't the case.

This revelation offers us an opportunity for reflection, but not necessarily from the angle I initially intended. Let's dive deeper into the analysis.

Straight bets in SGPs vs. best bets

Building a successful same-game parlay requires a high level of discipline. It's absolutely vital not to jeopardize your units in any leg of the bet.

The distinction between being a winning or losing bettor is extremely delicate, and even the slightest deviation from sound betting practices can significantly impact your bottom line. And these results are proof of that.

When I identify a straight bet as one of my best bets, you can trust that I've put it through a rigorous evaluation process. If it fails to meet all of the criteria that I value, I won't bet it.

However, this process becomes watered down when constructing a same-game parlay because you must find multiple legs from the same game. I simply didn't put my SGP picks through the same stringent process as my straight bets.

That resulted in numerous losses within the same-game parlays, which are magnified when calculated as straight bets.

Take a look at this bet, for example:

Based on my betting process, Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 assists stood out as a must-bet, and the best odds were available at FanDuel – hence my decision to place a straight bet on it there. Subsequently, I took that bet and constructed a same-game parlay around it.

For this SGP I didn't place straight bets on Jayson Tatum or Trae Young. While I chose to include them in the SGP for specific reasons, they didn't actually meet my threshold for a straight wager. This is merely one example highlighting how certain bets were incorporated into the same-game parlay simply to fulfill the requirement of getting additional legs, even though I didn't value the wager enough for a straight bet.

There's another major factor to consider when comparing these records and units won. When constructing a same-game parlay, you sacrifice one of the most advantageous aspects of being a sports bettor: price shopping.

For my NBA best bets (which consisted of straight bets posted on our website and Twitter), I placed a total of 350 straight bets. Of those, only 89 were done specifically at FanDuel (48-41 for +6.77 units), while the remainder were spread out across our best NBA betting sites.

That demonstrates the vital importance of price shopping. It becomes much more challenging to attack market inefficiencies when you're confined to using a single sportsbook, which is the case with a same-game parlay.

How to use same-game parlays moving forward

I thought this article would give me the perfect opportunity to criticize same-game parlays, but that's not the case. But I would still advise people to use extreme caution when building their cards.

Firstly, I would limit SGP participation to opportunities when there's a clear path to multiple strong picks. For instance, if I believe Stephen Curry is undervalued in points, rebounds, and assists for a particular game, I would consider building a same-game parlay targeting all of those markets.

The worst mistake you can make is to identify one favorable bet and then force two-plus additional legs without proper justification.

Next, I would avoid predetermining the number of legs and instead focus on the quality of each bet. Every bet included in the same-game parlay should meet the criteria you would use when deciding whether to place a straight bet on it. If you wouldn't place a straight bet on a specific leg of the parlay, then why include it in the same game parlay?

This is where I made significant mistakes this past season, and it's an area I would strive to correct moving forward.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.