NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Friday's schedule as we hunt for the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: November 17, 2023 2:55 PM EST • 5 minute read

We're looking at our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday, based on the best NBA odds.

In Thursday's edition of our NBA best bets article, we drank the juice, as our bets went 1-1, resulting in a loss of 0.13 units. Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams went Over his assists total with five dimes against the Golden State Warriors. Still, Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry failed to earn us a green checkmark by going Under his total of 4.5 assists.

On Friday, we have a packed slate, with 11 games on the schedule as the NBA Cup resumes. The road to Las Vegas to be one of the final four teams left in the tournament is heating up, as teams are starting to pay more attention to the tiebreakers.

Will the looming point differential - which will be a factor in who advances out of the group play - be a factor in how we place our player prop bets on Friday?

In addition to our Friday night NBA coverage, here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Friday’s NBA best bets

Clint Capela Over 8.5 points vs. 76ers (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 points vs. Lakers (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s NBA player props

Clint Capela Over 8.5 points vs. 76ers (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This seems like a somewhat lazy adjustment to Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela's odds, perhaps because he isn't a big name in the NBA. Capela has scored eight points in three straight games and gone Under the total in five straight games, causing his points prop to drop from 10.5 points to 8.5 points. I say it's lazy because it almost looks like it was dropped to 8.5 points simply because he scored eight points in three straight games, with really no consideration for the matchup.

The Hawks will be facing the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday, and Capela will see plenty of action as the Hawks will need his size to guard Joel Embiid. Not only will Capela's minutes be more secure because of the matchup, but the Hawks will also want to make Embiid work on the defensive end. That means emphasizing the usage of Capela in the pick-and-roll and having him run the floor in transition.

Capela is projected to score 9.9 points on Friday against the 76ers, which allows us to price the over 8.5 points at -137, but it is available at BetMGM for +105. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 18%.

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Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 points vs. Lakers (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When Ayton was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Portland Trail Blazers, there was somewhat of a consensus that we would see his statistics and usage increase, but that actually wasn't the case. Ayton had a really slow start to the season from a scoring perspective, causing his points prop to fluctuate between 14.5 and 12.5 points in the last several weeks.

When Ayton is trading at 12.5 points, this prop always grabs my attention and prompts further investigation to determine if the Over is worth a bet. On Friday, I believe it is.

While the Trail Blazers are dealing with injuries, Ayton has actually benefited from the new starting five for the Trail Blazers. It's no secret that Ayton misses all the pocket passes that Chris Paul set him up with for easy mid-range jump shots, as Ayton wasn't getting the same touches early in the season with the Trail Blazers. With Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon out, and Skylar Mays now running the point, we have seen Ayton's usage increase by roughly five percent.

Ayton is projected to score 14.1 points on Friday against the Lakers, so you can see how a total of 13.5 (depending on the juice) and 14.5 wouldn't work with this projection, but the 12.5 at even money has our attention. Based on this projection, we can price Ayton at -140 to go Over the total.

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NBA best bets made 11/17/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.