It’s the Heat’s turn to head into Cleveland tonight to play the Cavs, and the NBA Odds have Cleveland as a huge -12 favorite, with a total of 194. Dwyane Wade will not play in this game, and it could lead to a blowout, but what should we expect from this game?
Heat spiraling downward
Miami did prevail over the Knicks the other night 109-95, but that is a very small feat, even without Wade on the court. Before that they had lost three straight games, two of which to losing teams, the Pistons and Wolves. While the emergence of Hassan Whiteside has made the Heat relative again, he alone is not enough to hold down the paint against the talent of Cleveland. He ands Bosh look like a nice tandem in the front court for years to come, but without Wade, the guard and wing play from the Heat might suffer.
Luol Deng has been known as one of the better Lebron James defenders in the game, however even though he is set to play tonight, he has been banged up a lot this season, and it looks like he could be playing less than 100%. Against Lebron that’s not going to do him any favors. Plus, the combination of JR Smith and Kyrie Irving will surely dominate the Heat backcourt.
However how do we take advantage of this game from a betting perspective? The spread is far too high to bet on either side in my opinion. Even if the Heat keep this one close, they could still easily lose in the end with one of Lebron’s signature runs in the fourth quarter to pull away by 13 or 14 points. However the total of 194 tonight on the NBA odds is quite interesting. While the Heat have struggled to score some without Wade, they should be ok tonight against a Cavs team that is starting to feel the weight of the All Star Break being near. They have given up an average of over 100 points per game in their last three. I think this could lead to the over being a nice play tonight between two teams with some nice scoring.
The Sharp Pick
Miami’s scoring has been down this season for obvious reasons, but they have missed all three of their top players for extended periods this season. However they have scored or given up over 100 points in three of their last four games. They have also average giving up over 100 points per game in their last five games, and the Heat have cashed the over in three of their last four games overall.
While the Heat do have some solid matchups in this game, I don’t think it will be enough to keep them from giving up 100 points or more. I could easily see the Cavs scoring 105 or more in this one, despite the pace that Miami plays at, which is the slowest in the NBA. If this happens, look for a final score of about 104-93 in favor of the Cavs. Take the over and add it to your NBA picks for Wednesday.
NBA Pick: OVER 194 at 5Dimes