Back Mavericks -8 vs. Lakers for NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 4, 2014 1:57 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 4, 2014 1:57 PM UTC

The Lakers’ nightmare of a season is almost over, but the night is always darkest before the dawn. The NBA Odds could still be overvaluing the Lakers here, even though they are down one of their stars again.

Boom goes Pau
Pau Gasol made his return to the court against the Blazers earlier this week, however he got scratched for the game the next night. Now reports out of LA say that he may be done for the season, and that is not good news for the Lakers’ prospects of playing spoiler to some playoff bound teams. 

The NBA Odds have the Lakers as +8 home underdogs tonight, with a total of 213 points. Without Gasol tonight, the Lakers will have zero easy offense, and against a team like the Mavs who are fighting to move up the standings late in the season, LA might be headed for another blowout here.

Even though so far this season in the games Gasol has missed the Lakers haven’t been a bad bet ATS. However that was back when the season had a little more hope to it. When you have a bunch of players on one-year contracts, and you are a 50-loss team at the end of the season, I’m sure it’s very hard to get amped up and ready to play every night. The Lakers seem to have been in this rut for a while, but being without Gasol against Dallas is adding another layer of crap onto the Staples Center.

So far this season, the Mavs have been very good against the Lakers both SU and ATS, and tonight as only -8 favorites, I see them as a great wager once again.

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The Sharp Pick
The Mavs won their first two meetings with the Lakers this season both SU and ATS, and even though this next trend doesn’t mean much, it is surprising. The Lakers are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against the Mavs from Staples Center. That trend goes back to before the Mavs’ title run a few seasons ago, and it also overlaps some of the Lakers’ two titles back in 2009 and 2010. 

If indeed the Mavs just have the Lakers’ number when they come to Staples Center, you have to think against this Lakers team that the Mavs might be in for another blowout victory. The Lakers are only 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and while the Mavs haven’t been covering machines over the last few weeks, I think they can jump back into being a profitable wager against the Lakers.

With no one to defend Dirk Nowitzki, the Lakers will probably be playing from behind early in the game. This will put more pressure on their guards and wing players to shoot threes to try and catch up, and early in a game, that spells disaster.

Monta Ellis also has no one that can defend him well the entire game from LA. Xavier Henry is hurt again, and he would probably have been be the best bet to cover Ellis if he was playing. However reports out this morning suggest he may be done for the rest of the season too, and the remaining guards for LA are not great defensively. Go ahead and lay the points with Dallas, as they are very undervalued here.

My Pick: Mavs -8


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