Back Home Favorite Nuggets As Your NBA Picks vs. Mavericks

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, March 28, 2016 1:23 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 28, 2016 1:23 PM UTC

The Dallas Mavericks travel to the altitude of Denver for this Monday night matchup vs. the Nuggets. These teams have met 3 times this season, let's see who's my NBA pick inside. 


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Two of the 3 games were in OT.  A quick look at the Western Conference playoff standings might leave one thinking that Dallas was the more motivated team.  At 35-38 SU, Dallas holds down the No. 9 spot.  The Nuggets are on the outside looking in at the No. 10 spot (4 ½ games behind Dallas).  But, the Mavericks are looking anything like a team, who wants to qualify for the 8th spot and get their butts beat in a 4-game opening series by the Golden St. Warriors. 

The Mavs enter tonight on a 2-10 SU slide on a 3-game losing streak.  It has put them in danger of qualifying for the playoffs for the 15th time in 16 years.  The post-game quote by Wes Matthews summarizes the Dallas plight “we got to decide if we want to go home after the last game or not.  Do we want to keep playing for something or not?  Do we want to lay everything on the line every single night 9 more times and let the chips fall?”  After allowing 133 points to Sacramento in a 22 point loss, the resounding answer appears to be “no.”  The Mavs have allowed 112 points per game since February 5th (worst in the league) and 125 PPG in their last 5.  A season-ending injury to Chandler Parsons and an abdominal sprain for D. Will have hampered the offensive output.


Betting Analysis
Tonight, the Mavs face a Denver team with far less motivation but a far better attitude.  Denver has won 5 straight at home and 5/6 on this court vs. Dallas of late.  Though the Nuggets come off a poor performance themselves in a 105-90 loss to the Clippers on Sunday, They are clearly the more focused team. 

This is an unusual late-season matchup which finds the team who is lower in the standings, playing with more motivation.  We can look at it as an inverted super-surger vs. towel-tosser situation.  In a game where we simply cannot count on the Mavericks to show up, it is an easy choice to back a Nuggets team, who continues to play well on their home floor of late, has owned their opponent at this site and is playing with more motivation.  I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the Denver Nuggets tonight.   

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Free NBA Pick:  Denver -1.5
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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