Back Clippers Cover vs. Nuggets With NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 17, 2014 12:47 PM GMT

Monday, Mar. 17, 2014 12:47 PM GMT

The finale of Monday’s NBA slate is the Clippers coming off of a blowout win yesterday to head into Denver to play the Nuggets. The NBA Odds have the Clippers as -4 ½ favorites on the road here, with a total of 221 points.

Will LA be able to keep their league leading 11-game SU winning streak alive tonight in Denver, or will Ty Lawson and company spoil LA’s streak? 

B2B so-so for LAC

So far this season the Clippers are 7-7 ATS on the second night of a back to back, and even though going from LA to Denver is not a bad trip, it’s not a short distance either. Even though the Clippers made easy work of the Cavs last night, the starters for LA still played their normal allotment of minutes, Chris Paul played 36, while Blake Griffin played 38 minutes.

While I don’t think this kills the Clippers tonight, the altitude of Denver might give them some issues early in the game. It’s why the currnet NBA odds posting of -4 ½ is far from a lock, but I still like the Clippers to cover the spread by game’s end. Even though they’re tired, the Nuggets pose little threat outside of Ty Lawson, and Paul is still a very good defender. Even though Lawson is quicker than Paul at this stage of their careers, Paul can still make it difficult to get into the lane, and to even bring the ball up the court. 

As long as Chris Paul and the Clippers are engaged defensively tonight on the road, they should cover this spread. They have been very good this season when favored away from home, and I am following that trend tonight, even on no rest.

[gameodds]5/258936/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick

This year the Clippers are 14-8-1 ATS when playing as road favorites, and even though a lot of those wins came at the hands of the horrific Eastern Conference, the Clippers have still had very good wins as road favorites. Even against a team like the Nuggets, the Clippers will outpace them on offense, and there is no way Denver will be able to keep up if LA is hitting shots. 

The Nuggets also pose little threat in the paint, and the Clippers will own the area around the basket tonight. Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin are not great defenders in the post at this point in their young careers, but they make up for it with their athleticism on that end of the floor. The Nuggets are criminally undersized in the paint this season with the injuries they’ve sustained, and Griffin and Jordan will certainly have big nights on both ends of the floor. 

This season, the Nuggets are only 12-20 ATS at home, and a big reason for that is the sportsbooks overvaluing their home court advantage. Even though the altitude is a factor for most visiting teams, the Nuggets aren’t as good this year as in seasons past, and they have to be good enough to take advantage of something like the altitude. If they had their full complement of players, it would be different, but with only Lawson and a bunch of role players, the Nuggets don’t have enough to cover this spread. LA is 23-16-1 ATS versus the West this season, and I am backing another win with my NBA picks tonight, both SU and ATS tonight. 

My Pick: Clippers -4 ½

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