Back Celtics To Win & Cover With Your NBA Picks vs. Beat-Up Heat

Kevin Stott

Saturday, February 27, 2016 1:08 PM GMT

Dwyane Wade and the beat-up Heat head north to TD Garden Arena in Boston on Saturday to face Jared Sullinger and the Celtics. What's the best play for our NBA picks?

This is the second of three meetings between the teams this Regular Season, with Boston winning by 11 in Miami in the first meeting. So do the Celtics win again here or will Miami pull off the upset this weekend? Let’s take a look at the L10 meetings in this series, some recent relevant Trends and see if there’s an NBA pick or two worth recommending here.

 

Odds Overview
Avery Bradley and the Boston Celtics (34-25 SU, 32-26-1 ATS) welcome the Miami Heat (31-24 SU, 30-26-1 ATS) to TD Garden on Saturday afternoon in this Eastern Conference matinee and second of two meetings between these teams teams this season, with the Celtics having already beat the Heat, 116-95 at the AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami on Nov. 13. Oddsmakers Offshore have opened up host Boston as solid 5-point favorites (Sportsbook.ag) in this game with the Total (Points) at 208 (BetOnline).

 

Miami Heat
Like some other teams in the NBA, the Miami Heat (14-13 SU Away, 15-12-0 ATS Away) and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra have been dealing with Injury problems with star and starting SG Dwyane Wade constantly dealing with Knee issues and PF Chris Bosh (19.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg) having a Leg injury and Out Indefinitely with Bosh and the Heat now debating on pulling the plug on their “other” star for the rest of the season. SG Tyler Johnson (Shoulder) is Out for the Season as is PG Beno Udrih (Foot) while starting C Hassan Whiteside (Oblique), starting SF Luol Deng (Finger) and reserve PF Chris Andersen (Knee) have all also been dealing with their own Injury issues.

The Heat (60/1 to win NBA title, Paddy Power) are more like the Miami M*A*S*H Unit, but still find themselves in 4th place in the wobbly Eastern Conference behind these Boston Celtics with an almost identical record up in 3rd place. Hey, who needs LeBron, right? (Well, it would be so much easier.) In their last game on Wednesday night in Miami, the Heat lost to the defending NBA champion, 118-112, (GSW-8½, 218½, Over) and this team is 6-4 over its L10, but with key cog Bosh probably gone for the year, it’s hard to feel to sunny about Miami’s prospects heading down the stretch this Regular Season or in the Playoffs, should the Heat qualify. For now, Wade and Whiteside will have to provide a foundation for this blended Old-Young team to at least try to continue to grow as a unit from February-May.

 

Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics (18-10 SU Home, 15-12-1 ATS Home) and Head Coach Brad Stevens defeated the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night, 112-107 for their 9th straight Win at TD Garden although the hosts failed to cover ATS after leading by a gaudy 15 points at the end of the 3rd Quarter (BOS -7½, 215, Over) in the first game of an important 5-game Homestand for the hosts. G Isaiah Thomas led Boston in scoring with 27 points while fellow Starters SF Jae Crowder (20 points, 8 rebounds), SG Avery Bradley (18 points), PF Amir Johnson (15 points, 8 rebounds) and C Jared Sullinger (14 points, 10 rebounds) all finished in double-digits.

The Celtics bench—Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, Jonas Jerebko, RJ Hunter and Tyler Zeller—chipped in 18 points and 15 rebounds in the win over the Bucks. The only Injury concern for Boston (100/1 NBA odds to win NBA title, Sportingbet) heading in here is with C Kelly Olynyk (Shoulder) who is Out until early March. The Celtics come into this game in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference, 1 game ahead of these Miami Heat and 8½ games behind LeBron James and the conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers (41-15, -250 to win Eastern Conference, Bwin).

 

Trends, Last 10 Meetings Trends, Recent Relevant Series Information and Logical Betting Approaches
In the L10 meetings in this series, the Celtics are 7-3 ATS, including that outright win as a Road Underdog in Miami earlier this season. The Total is split 5-5 ATS in this L10. And, only Miami—in the 1st and 2nd and 5th and 6th meetings of the L10—has W2 straight games SU in the L10, meaning that this is a series that’s like a Butterfly in the Wind and one where the Home team and the Favorite can lose outright and nobody would even blink an eye. The Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their L29 games played on a Saturday while the Underdog is 13-3 ATS over the L16 meetings in this series. Both of these teams have done well ATS this season with Boston at 30-26-1 and Miami at 32-26-1 and both have also done what good teams have to do to win in professional sports—win, or at least hold your own, on the Road.

The Heat (14-13 SU Away) head in here one game above the .500 mark away from Miami, while the Celtics are 16-15 SU in games away from Boston. The Heat have been a strong Under team (21-35-1) to date (62.5%) while electric playmaker Thomas and the Celtics have been a slight Over team (31-28-0). One Trend here which does seem to hit hard: The Heat are 4-13 ATS the L17 meetings in Boston (23.5%). And with the Celtics confident after beating the Heat by 21 points in their own crib back in November, getting a nice little speech from Head Coach and Butler-product Stevens after a mini 2-game skid after the All-Star Break and this one being in Beantown, expect a nice 2nd Half spurt to lift Boston to a near-double-digit win and using Boston as a Moneyline element in a parlay may also be a wise idea when that market opens up.

Final Score Prediction: Celtics 105 Heat 96

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NBA Picks: Celtics -5 and -190
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes