Back Celtics -2.5 with Wednesday's NBA Picks over Nuggets, as Denver is Fade-Worthy

Darin Zank

Wednesday, February 4, 2015 3:02 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2015 3:02 PM GMT

The Celtics are short home favorites in NBA odds tonight over the truggling Denver Nuggets. Betting Boston ATS has been a good bet, covering the spread in seven of its last nine contests. 

Nuggets-Celtics Betting Odds
Most of the NBA odds market opened Boston as a two-point favorite for this game, with a total of right around 198; in the early betting most books bumped the Celtics to -2.5 and -3, and the total to 200.

 

Nuggets-Celtics: Background
Boston just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 108-97 victory at New York Tuesday night. The Celtics jumped out to a 14-2 lead and never trailed. Boston later bumped that advantage to 16, let the Knicks get within four points with about eight minutes to go, but put the game away from there, picking up the win and the cover as a one-point favorite.

The Celtics shot a hot 55 percent from the floor Tuesday night, and perhaps most importantly committed just 11 fouls.

So the Celts are 4-5 SU but 7-2 ATS over their last nine games, because they've been playing some decent ball as of late, pulling upsets at Portland and at Utah and giving the Clippers a tough game in LA and Golden State a good game out by the Bay.

At 17-30 Boston sits in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, but it's also only 3.5 games behind eighth-place Miami.

Denver has lost three in a row and 10 of its last 11 after falling at Philly Tuesday night 105-98. The Nuggets trailed by 23 in the second quarter and by 28 in the third, got within 10 with about 10 minutes to go and six with 30 seconds to go, but fell short and lost outright as seven-point favorites.

Denver shot just 39 percent from the floor Tuesday, allowed the Sixers to hit 11 of 27 shots from 3-point land and committed 29 fouls, which led to 42 Philadelphia free-throws, of which it made 32.

The Nuggets have now been held to under 100 points in eight of their last nine games.

At 19-29 Denver sits in 11th place in the Western Conference, 7.5 games behind eighth-place Phoenix.

Boston took the first meeting between these teams this season 10 days ago in Denver 100-99. The Nuggets led that game by a dozen late into the third quarter, but the Celtics rallied for a tough road victory one night after beating the Blazers in Portland. Boston shot 49 percent from the floor that night, held Denver to 42 percent shooting and won outright as a six-point underdog.

Nuggets G Ty Lawson missed that game due to an off-court issue.

Last season these teams split two games, each winning and covering on its home court.

For more NBA betting action, check out Warriors vs. Mavericks ATS Picks.

Nuggets-Celtics Key Stats
Denver ranks 26th in the league in FG shooting at just 43 percent, and 18th in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 45 percent from the field.

Boston ranks 17th in FG shooting at 45 percent and 14th in FG defense at 45 percent.

 

Nuggets-Celtics Betting Trends
Boston is 9-15 SU, 10-14 ATS at home this season.

Denver is 7-17 SU, 9-14 ATS on the road.

Boston is 24-22 on the totals this season, as Celtics games have averaged 204 points.

Denver has leaned toward the UNDERS this season by a 27-20 margin, even though Nuggets games have averaged 205 points.

 

Nuggets-Celtics Free Pick
Denver is a complete mess at the moment, and cannot be recommended. Three games ago the Nuggets lost by 30 to Memphis; two games ago they got blown out by Charlotte; and last time out they lost to the lowly 76ers. Boston, meanwhile, has been beating expectations (the spreads) recently, and is just the better team at the moment. We'll go with the home team here for our  NBA pick, at the short spread.

Free NBA Pick: Boston -2.5 at Pinnacle

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