Ailing Warriors Heavy Chalk Hosting Mavs Minus Star Duo

mavericks warriors

Jay Pryce

Thursday, December 14, 2017 1:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 14, 2017 1:38 PM UTC

The injury-riddled Warriors will be without star players Steph Curry and Draymond Green when they host the Mavericks as 11.5-point chalk Thursday (10:30 p.m. ET). What’s the best bet with these two out of the lineup? 

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State WarriorsFree NBA Pick: Under 212.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Warriors (22-6 SU, 13-15 ATS)

Injures Mount For Kerr, Golden State Owns The Mavs

Warriors head coach Steve Kerr summed up to the Detroit News prior to their 102-98 win over the Pistons last Friday what it means with Steph Curry out of the lineup: "Everything."

Curry is expected to miss the next several weeks with a severely sprained ankle. Golden State is built around the two-time MVP’s shooting prowess, and no box score figure, plus/minus rating or other advanced metric can put a proper number on his value to the franchise. It shows up in the betting market, too. Since Kerr took over, the Warriors are 6-13-1 ATS with Curry out of the lineup, failing to cover a -6.2 line by 2.9 points per game.

On Thursday vs. Dallas, Kerr will also be without power forward Draymond Green, ruled doubtful with a sore right shoulder. The reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year sat out Monday’s 111-104 win over the Trail Blazers and missed practice Wednesday. Nick Young (concussion) and Zaza Pachulia (shoulder) are also expected to sit.

Golden State rules this series recently. It is 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meeting, averaging 115.3 points per game on 50.4 percent from the floor.

Dallas Mavericks (8-20 SU, 13-15 ATS)

Mavs Outmatching Market, Barnes on Fire

The Mavericks are far exceeding betting market expectations of late. They are 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS, covering a 3.6 line by 7.1 points per game. In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points in any contest in this span.

Two key factors are driving the resurgence: improving team defense and stellar play from Harrison Barnes. Dallas is holding opponents to 43.1 percent from the floor during the run. In its last five games, the defense is surrendering 106.9 points per 100 possessions, 10th fewest in the NBA. Barnes, meanwhile, is posting 16.7 points, pulling down 8.1 rebounds, dishing out 2.8 assists and gifting just 1.3 turnovers in 34.2 minutes per game since Nov. 22.

And The Pick ...

Green and Curry have sat out together five times under Kerr's leadership, and the Warriors are 1-4-1 ATS overall, failing to cover the spread (-2.9) by 3.6 points per contest. The most glaring performance drop is offensively. Golden State has matched its projected team total once, averaging just 100.7 points per game on 43.8 percent shooting. With the Mavericks defense hot and team confidence soaring after a home underdog win against the Spurs last time out, expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Dallas puts up 97.2 points per game on the road and has surpassed the century mark three times in 12 contests this year.

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